[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 13 issued 2330 UT on 05 May 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 6 09:30:17 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    1756UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 137/91


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 May             07 May             08 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate during 5 May with an M1.4 
flare from AR1739 making it the most active region. There were 
also high C flares from AR1739 and low C from AR1734. 6 May activity 
is expected to be Low with the continuing chance of Moderate 
with reasonable chance of M-class flares from AR1739 and AR1734. 
Interplanetary Magnetic Field north-south Bz fluctuated in the 
quiescent +/-5nT range, predominantly south till 14UT, favourable 
for mild merging with geomagnetic field, and sharp turn north 
at 18UT. Solar wind speeds were low 350km/s till 12UT and slowly 
increased to moderate 430km/s by 18UT, remaining near there since. 
Solar wind speeds are expected to increase mildly during 6 May 
due to a coronal hole and the possible glancing impact of a CME 
launched on 2 May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 05 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12213221
      Cocos Island         4   11212210
      Darwin               9   22223322
      Townsville           8   12223322
      Learmonth            8   21223321
      Alice Springs        6   22113221
      Culgoora             5   12113211
      Gingin               6   11213221
      Camden               5   12113211
      Canberra             3   01103210
      Hobart               7   11114221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 May :
      Macquarie Island     5   01204100
      Casey                8   23323210
      Mawson              19   55432210

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2111 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 May    10    Unsettled
07 May     6    Quiet
08 May     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled periods during the day with a brief 
Active period at some stations ~14UT due to the prolonged mild 
Bz southwards. Unsettled conditions are expected for 6 May due 
the late arrival of a Corotating Interaction Region (CIR) and 
possible glancing blow from a coronal mass ejection launched 
2 May may result in brief Active periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly Normal conditions expected with the chance of 
occasional short-wave fadeouts from M class flares.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 May    86

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 May    80    Near predicted monthly values
07 May    80    Near predicted monthly values
08 May    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly values are expected over 
the next few days with the chance of slight depressions on 6 
May due to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions from a corotating 
interaction region and possible glancing blow from a coronal 
mass ejection launched on 2 May. Short wave fadeouts possible 
with reasonable chance of M flares from AR1739 and AR1734.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    57400 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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