[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 May 13 issued 2343 UT on 04 May 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 5 09:43:19 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May: 142/96


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 May             06 May             07 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   142/96             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity was at Low levels during 4 May and is 
expected to be predominantly Low with the chance of M-class flare 
activity for 5 May. Analysis of SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery 
suggests recent CME activity is not expected to be geoeffective. 
Solar wind speeds ranged between approximately 350-400 km/s during 
4 May. Solar wind speeds are expected to increase mildly during 
5 May due to a coronal hole and the possible glancing impact 
of a CME observed on 2 May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11211112
      Cocos Island         3   11111111
      Darwin               7   22222222
      Townsville           7   22212223
      Learmonth            6   22222212
      Alice Springs        3   11121111
      Culgoora             3   11211102
      Gingin               3   11111112
      Camden               3   11211111
      Canberra             2   11210101
      Hobart               4   11221211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 May :
      Macquarie Island     3   00220210
      Casey                8   13322222
      Mawson              24   52221545

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   2210 1332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 May    12    Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with the chance of 
                isolated Active periods
06 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
07 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet to Unsettled periods are expected for the 
next few days with the small chance of Active periods during 
5 May due to the anticipated arrival of a Corotating Interaction 
Region (CIR).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly Normal conditions are expected for the next few 
days with the chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 May    76

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 May    80    Near predicted monthly values
06 May    75    Near predicted monthly values
07 May    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 4 
May and is current for 4-5 May. Mostly near predicted monthly 
values are expected over the next few days with the chance of 
slight depressions on 6 May. SWFs possible over the next few 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 413 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    77300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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