[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 May 13 issued 2330 UT on 02 May 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 3 09:30:18 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0511UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 149/104


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 May             04 May             05 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            155/109            150/105

COMMENT: Several low C-class flares from active regions AR1730,1731 
and 1734. An M1.1 flare from AR1731 (N09, W17) was associated 
with a Type II radio burst indicating a coronal mass ejection. 
However SOHO LASCO imagery indicates the CME is directed strongly 
northwards, despite the moderately low latitude of AR1731. The 
lower-right edge of CME should strike a weak-moderate glancing 
blow at Earth between 05UT 4th May (using the fastest speed estimate) 
and mid UT day 5th May with the WSA-Enlil solar wind model predicting 
01 UT 6th May. Before this Enlil predicts enhanced solar wind 
speed and density from a solar sector boundary in the middle 
of the UT day 4th May. AR1734 is the largest of the numbered 
active regions and AR1730 and 1731 are the most magnetically 
complex (beta-gamma-delta) with AR1731 most likely to flare and 
now in the most geoeffective position for CMEs. The cumulative 
probability across all the regions of isolated M/X flares is 
moderate. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field fluctuated in the 
quiescent +/-4nT range causing no significant merging/reconnection 
with the geomagnetic field. Solar wind was steady all day at 
the moderate 470km/s level.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22222222
      Darwin               8   32222222
      Townsville           8   22222232
      Learmonth           10   33222232
      Alice Springs        5   22211221
      Culgoora             6   22221222
      Gingin               9   33112232
      Camden               5   22221121
      Canberra             5   22221121
      Hobart               8   23222222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 May :
      Macquarie Island    10   34132211
      Casey               12   34321232
      Mawson              41   65322274

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             28   3354 5453     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 May     5    Quiet
04 May    12    Unsettled
05 May     9    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Regional geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet as 
solar wind speed was steady at a moderate 470km/s and no significant 
IMF Bz southwards periods occurred. Quiet conditions should continue 
3rd May. WSA-Enlil solar wind model predicts passage of a solar 
sector boundary middle of the UT day 4th May with increased speed 
and density, suggesting Unsettled conditions. A glancing blow 
from the bottom-right of a northward directed CME from AR1731 
launched 0510UT 2nd May will weakly interact with the magnetic 
field on the 5th or 6th.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal conditions 3rd May. Unsettled geomagnetic activity 
4th May may slightly disturb ionosphere and a CME glancing blow 
5/6th also but to a lesser extent.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 May    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 May    75    Near predicted monthly values
04 May    70    Near predicted monthly values
05 May    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: As the effects of yesterdays geomagnetic disturbances 
washed through the regional ionosphere, there were quite large 
variations in available MUFs, both enhanced and depressed. Conditions 
should settle across 3rd May. Passage of a solar sector boundary 
4th May with Unsettled geomagnetic activity may cause greater 
MUF variability and to a lesser extent this will continue 5/6th 
May due to a weak glancing blow from a northward directed CME 
launched from AR1731 0510UT 2nd May.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 428 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:    94100 K  Bz:  -6 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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