[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 May 13 issued 2330 UT on 01 May 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 2 09:30:18 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 May 03 May 04 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: Several low to mid C-class flares from regions 1730,1731
1732 and 1734. The largest flare was a C9.6 from 1730, but not
strong enough to cause a short-wave fadeout. Type III radio bursts
were less prevalent than previous days in association with the
x-ray flares. AR1734 is now the the largest of the numbered active
regions and AR1730 and 1731 are the most magnetically complex
(beta-gamma-delta) and likely to flare. 1730 is declining whereas
1731 and 1734 are growing. The cumulative probability across
all the regions of isolated M/X flares is moderate. There was
a large farside, eastward directed coronal mass ejection ~0215UT
which will not be geoeffective. A long extended southward Interplanetary
Magnetic Field, nearly 24 hours with significant periods below
-10nT, has caused strong merging/reconnection with the geomagnetic
field and resultant activity. Solar wind fluctuated in the moderate
400-500km/s sec range.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Unsettled to
Active with occasional Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 01 May : A K
Australian Region 21 23345343
Darwin 19 23335343
Townsville 21 13445342
Learmonth 22 23345352
Alice Springs 21 23345343
Culgoora 18 23335342
Gingin 22 22345353
Camden 22 13445343
Canberra 18 12444343
Hobart 24 23445443
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 May :
Macquarie Island 50 13656663
Casey 14 33333242
Mawson 61 55444485
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1122 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 May 12 Unsettled
03 May 7 Quiet
04 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Regional geomagnetic conditions ranged from Quiet to
Minor Storm although generally in the Unsettled-Active range.
This was due to an extended period of southward Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (negative IMF Bz) which lasted for ~24 hours with
significant periods below -10nT. This caused strong merging/reconnection
with the geomagnetic field and the resultant geomagnetic activity.
A geomagnetic disturbance alert was issued at 14UT when the regional
magnetic K index reached 5. Aurora sightings were reported from
southern Tasmania. IMF Bz has returned to near zero so geomagnetic
activity is expected to be Unsettled 2-May as the current disturbance
subsides and then Quiet for 3-4 May in the absence of further
prolonged southward IMF Bz or CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
03 May Normal Normal Fair-normal
04 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Extended southward Interplanetary Magnetic Field caused
merging with the geomagnetic field, increased geomagnetic activity,
particularly in polar regions, and resultant ionospheric disturbances.
HF conditions are expected to be recovering 2 May and normal
for 3-4 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 May 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 May 90 About 10% above predicted monthly values
03 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
04 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: A geomagnetic disturbance caused broad enhancements
in the ionosphere and maximum available HF frequencies. The interplanetary
magnetic field conditions that caused the disturbance are returning
to normal approaching 00UT so the geomagnetic field and ionosphere
will be recovering 2 May and should return to normal conditions
3-4 May. Polar regions were most strongly affected. The very
southern Australasian region had strong spread F conditions due
to this magnetic disturbance.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 46500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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