[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 30 Apr 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 1 09:30:24 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 May 02 May 03 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Several low to mid C-class flares from regions 1730,1731
and 1733 with the largest a C3.6 from 1730. Type III radio bursts
were observed in association with some of the flares. A minor type
II radio sweep at 1935UT yesterday, associated with a C flare
and type IV radio noise burst, from AR1733 does not appear to
have resulted in a geoeffective coronal mass ejection as it is
small and angled south-west. AR1731 is still the largest
of the 7 numbered active regions although it has declined to
350 millionths of the disc. AR1730 is the most magnetically complex
(beta-gamma-delta) and likely to flare. The cumulative probability
across all the regions of isolated M/X flares is now moderate.
Solar wind speed rose from low 340km/s up to moderate 440km/s
at 14UT under the influence of coronal hole CH567, and then declined
to ~380km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field north-south magnetic
polarity was oscillating in the neutral +/- 5nT area indicating
no large merging events with the geomagnetic field.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 21122112
Darwin 6 22122222
Townsville 8 22232222
Learmonth 8 22133212
Alice Springs 4 21122111
Culgoora 5 21122112
Gingin 4 21022112
Camden 4 11122102
Canberra 4 11122102
Hobart 5 11222112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 10110000
Casey 9 33223212
Mawson 19 43232245
Davis 13 33332---
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2100 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 May 7 Quiet
02 May 5 Quiet
03 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Regional geomagnetic conditions were generally Quiet
even though solar wind speed rose by 14UT to moderate 440km/s
under the influence of coronal hole CH567, providing Unsettled conditions
for 3-6 hours at some locations. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be predominantly Quiet for the next three days in the absence
of prolonged southward IMF Bz or CMEs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal
02 May Normal Normal Normal
03 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Apr 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
02 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
03 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The HF propagation conditions were mostly normal during
the UT day 30April at mid-latitudes. Strong enhancements at near-equatorial
northern sites were observed, especially 08-09UT, from an enhanced
equatorial anomaly, possibly caused by remnant activity after
the geomagnetic disturbances of the previous days. Expect mostly
normal HF frequency availability for next three days in the absence
of significant geomagnetic or solar flare activity. There is
a moderate chance of isolated M/X flares from at least 4 of the
7 solar active regions, which if they occur during local daytime
will cause short wave fadeouts of varying degrees.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 51500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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