[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 May 13 issued 2340 UT on 02 May 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 3 09:40:37 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MAY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0511UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 May 04 May 05 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Several low C-class flares from active regions AR1730,1731
and 1734. An M1.1 flare from AR1731 (N09, W17) was associated
with a Type II radio burst indicating a coronal mass ejection.
However SOHO LASCO imagery indicates the CME is directed strongly
northwards, despite the moderately low latitude of AR1731. The
lower-right edge of CME should strike a weak-moderate glancing
blow at Earth between 05UT 4th May (using the fastest speed estimate)
and mid UT day 6th May with the WSA-Enlil solar wind model predicting
01 UT 6th May. Before this Enlil predicts enhanced solar wind
speed and density from a solar sector boundary in the middle
of the UT day 4th May. AR1734 is the largest of the numbered
active regions and AR1730 and 1731 are the most magnetically
complex (beta-gamma-delta) with AR1731 most likely to flare and
now in the most geoeffective position for CMEs. The cumulative
probability across all the regions of isolated M/X flares is
moderate. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field fluctuated in the
quiescent +/-4nT range causing no significant merging/reconnection
with the geomagnetic field. Solar wind was steady all day at
the moderate 470km/s level.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 May : A K
Australian Region 7 22222222
Darwin 8 32222222
Townsville 8 22222232
Learmonth 10 33222232
Alice Springs 5 22211221
Culgoora 6 22221222
Gingin 9 33112232
Camden 5 22221121
Canberra 5 22221121
Hobart 8 23222222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 May :
Macquarie Island 10 34132211
Casey 12 34321232
Mawson 41 65322274
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 28 3354 5453
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 May 5 Quiet
04 May 12 Unsettled
05 May 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Regional geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet as
solar wind speed was steady at a moderate 470km/s and no significant
IMF Bz southwards periods occurred. Quiet conditions should continue
3rd May. WSA-Enlil solar wind model predicts passage of a solar
sector boundary middle of the UT day 4th May with increased speed
and density, suggesting Unsettled conditions. A glancing blow
from the bottom-right of a northward directed CME from AR1731
launched 0510UT 2nd May will weakly interact with the magnetic
field on the 5th or 6th.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal Normal
04 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal conditions 3rd May. Unsettled geomagnetic activity
4th May may slightly disturb ionosphere and a CME glancing blow
5/6th also but to a lesser extent.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 May 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
04 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
05 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: As the effects of yesterdays geomagnetic disturbances
washed through the regional ionosphere, there were quite large
variations in available MUFs, both enhanced and depressed. Conditions
should settle across 3rd May. Passage of a solar sector boundary
4th May with Unsettled geomagnetic activity may cause greater
MUF variability and to a lesser extent this will continue 5/6th
May due to a weak glancing blow from a northward directed CME
launched from AR1731 0510UT 2nd May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 428 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 94100 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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