[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 29 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 30 10:30:14 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Mar 31 Mar 01 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day, 29 March.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low over the next 3
days. The solar wind speed ranged from 390 to 540km/s over the
last 24 hours and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +8/-11nT. Expect the high speed solar wind
stream to slowly decrease to normal levels over the UT day 30
March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet to Active
with isolated Minor Storm at high latitudes
Estimated Indices 29 Mar : A K
Australian Region 13 23433321
Darwin 12 23333322
Townsville 12 23433320
Learmonth 16 33443322
Norfolk Island 12 22433321
Culgoora 12 22433321
Gingin 14 23433421
Camden 13 23433321
Canberra 11 22433320
Hobart 19 23534422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Mar :
Macquarie Island 48 23765631
Casey 15 34433321
Mawson 68 54544865
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar :
Darwin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 4112 1322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Mar 6 Quiet
01 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: In the IPS magnetometer data for 29 Mar, a weak (26nT)
impulse was observed at 0815UT. Lingering effects of high speed
solar wind stream along with prolonged periods of a southward
oriented Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field resulted
in reconnection with the Earth's magnetic field and an increase
in geomagnetic activity. Expect a gradual return to Unsettled
to Quiet conditions as the UT day progresses.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Mar 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Mar 50 10 to 25% below predicted monthly values
31 Mar 69 Near predicted monthly values
01 Apr 69 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly near predicted values during
the UT day, 29 March. Expect MUFs to be mildly depressed today,
30 March, due an increase in geomagnetic activity and then return
to monthly predicted values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 91900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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