[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 29 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 30 10:30:14 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Mar             31 Mar             01 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day, 29 March. 
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low over the next 3 
days. The solar wind speed ranged from 390 to 540km/s over the 
last 24 hours and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field ranged between +8/-11nT. Expect the high speed solar wind 
stream to slowly decrease to normal levels over the UT day 30 
March.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet to Active 
with isolated Minor Storm at high latitudes

Estimated Indices 29 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   23433321
      Darwin              12   23333322
      Townsville          12   23433320
      Learmonth           16   33443322
      Norfolk Island      12   22433321
      Culgoora            12   22433321
      Gingin              14   23433421
      Camden              13   23433321
      Canberra            11   22433320
      Hobart              19   23534422    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    48   23765631
      Casey               15   34433321
      Mawson              68   54544865

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar : 
      Darwin              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             23                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              9   4112 1322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
31 Mar     6    Quiet
01 Apr     4    Quiet

COMMENT: In the IPS magnetometer data for 29 Mar, a weak (26nT) 
impulse was observed at 0815UT. Lingering effects of high speed 
solar wind stream along with prolonged periods of a southward 
oriented Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field resulted 
in reconnection with the Earth's magnetic field and an increase 
in geomagnetic activity. Expect a gradual return to Unsettled 
to Quiet conditions as the UT day progresses.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Mar    63

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Mar    50    10 to 25% below predicted monthly values
31 Mar    69    Near predicted monthly values
01 Apr    69    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly near predicted values during 
the UT day, 29 March. Expect MUFs to be mildly depressed today, 
30 March, due an increase in geomagnetic activity and then return 
to monthly predicted values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 425 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:    91900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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