[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 30 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 31 10:30:15 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Mar             01 Apr             02 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day, 30 March. 
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low over the next 3 
days. The solar wind speed ranged from 500 to 600km/s over the 
last 24 hours and is expected to return to light to moderate 
levels today, 31 March. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field ranged between +5/-7nT. A type II sweep estimated 
at approximately 800km/s was observed by Sagamore Hill and San 
Vito Solar Observatories, however no associated CME was evident 
based on LASCO images.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   33221122
      Darwin               9   33222222
      Townsville          10   33222232
      Learmonth           10   33222232
      Norfolk Island       8   33221122
      Culgoora             7   33121121
      Gingin              10   33222232
      Camden               7   33121121
      Canberra             6   33121021
      Hobart               9   34221121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    14   45232111
      Casey               17   54422132
      Mawson              47   56433275

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar : 
      Darwin              13   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               5   (Quiet)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             26   3454 4533     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Mar     6    Quiet
01 Apr     4    Quiet
02 Apr     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Unsettled to Active levels noted early in the UT day, 
30 March, with Active to Minor Storm levels at high latitudes. 
As day progressed activity subsided to mostly Quiet levels. Expect 
geomagnetic activity to remain at mostly Quiet levels for the 
next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Mar    49

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values
01 Apr    69    Near predicted monthly values
02 Apr    69    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were depressed over the Australian and 
Antarctic regions over the UT day, 30 March due to geomagnetic 
activity. Also noted was isolated cases of sporadic E during 
local night time hours, particularly on the eastern coast. Expect 
MUFs to return to near predicted values over the next three days 
as geomagnetic activity subsides.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 450 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:   132000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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