[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 28 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 29 10:30:16 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Mar             30 Mar             31 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day, 28 March. 
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low over the next 3 
days. The solar wind speed ranged from 560 to 390km/s over the 
last 24 hours and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field ranged between +3/-5nT. Expect the solar speed to remain 
light to moderate over the UT day, 29 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 28 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   21121321
      Darwin               7   22122321
      Townsville           7   22221321
      Learmonth           10   32132421
      Norfolk Island       5   21221221
      Culgoora             5   21121221
      Gingin               8   32131320
      Camden               6   21121321
      Canberra             4   21120310
      Hobart               7   21231321    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    14   31352330
      Casey               11   33422320
      Mawson              19   43323335

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            57   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             14   1323 3434     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Mar     6    Quiet
30 Mar     4    Quiet
31 Mar     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Expect a return to mostly Quiet levels of geomagnetic 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Mar    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values
30 Mar    69    Near predicted monthly values
31 Mar    69    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 27 March 
and is current for 28-29 Mar. F0F2 values were below monthly 
predicted values for most of the Australian region, particularly 
during the local day time hours. The ionosphere appears to be 
recovering earlier then predicted, expect a return to near monthly 
predicted values over the next three days, except for mild depressions 
at Cocos and Niue stations during local night time hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 444 km/sec  Density:    7.8 p/cc  Temp:   150000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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