[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 27 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 28 10:30:14 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Mar 29 Mar 30 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day, 27 March.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low over the next 3
days. The solar wind speed ranged from 380 to 550km/s over the
last 24 hours and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged between +12/-8nT. Expect the solar wind speed to
increase to around 600km/s with fluctuating Bz between +/-10nT.
Note, a low latitude coronal hole is at its geoeffective location
on the solar disc.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Mar : A K
Australian Region 13 23323333
Darwin 13 33323332
Townsville 14 23333333
Learmonth 17 22323543
Norfolk Island 9 22223322
Culgoora 11 22223333
Camden 13 23323333
Canberra 11 22223333
Hobart 14 23323433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Mar :
Macquarie Island 27 22255632
Casey 17 34323433
Mawson 46 24344657
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Mar 30 Active to Minor Storm
29 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
30 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 25 March and
is current for 28 Mar only. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet
to Active during the UT day, 27 March with isolated cases of
Minor Storm levels at high latitudes. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to remain Unsettled to Active during the next 48
hours due to high speed solar wind influence with isolated cases
of Minor Storm levels at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Mar 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Mar 40 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
29 Mar 40 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
30 Mar 50 About 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The HF propagation conditions were mostly normal at
mid latitudes during UT day, 27 March, Moderate f0F2 depressions
were noted at Cocos and Niue stations. f0F2 depressions were
also observed as high latitudes due to minor geomagnetic activity
associated with high speed solar wind stream. Expect mild to
moderate depressions for MUFs at mid to high latitudes due to
increase in the geomagnetic activity over the next 48 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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