[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 27 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 28 10:30:14 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Mar             29 Mar             30 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day, 27 March. 
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low over the next 3 
days. The solar wind speed ranged from 380 to 550km/s over the 
last 24 hours and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field ranged between +12/-8nT. Expect the solar wind speed to 
increase to around 600km/s with fluctuating Bz between +/-10nT. 
Note, a low latitude coronal hole is at its geoeffective location 
on the solar disc.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 27 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   23323333
      Darwin              13   33323332
      Townsville          14   23333333
      Learmonth           17   22323543
      Norfolk Island       9   22223322
      Culgoora            11   22223333
      Camden              13   23323333
      Canberra            11   22223333
      Hobart              14   23323433    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    27   22255632
      Casey               17   34323433
      Mawson              46   24344657

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1000 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Mar    30    Active to Minor Storm
29 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active
30 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 25 March and 
is current for 28 Mar only. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet 
to Active during the UT day, 27 March with isolated cases of 
Minor Storm levels at high latitudes. Geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to remain Unsettled to Active during the next 48 
hours due to high speed solar wind influence with isolated cases 
of Minor Storm levels at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Mar    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Mar    40    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
29 Mar    40    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
30 Mar    50    About 10% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: The HF propagation conditions were mostly normal at 
mid latitudes during UT day, 27 March, Moderate f0F2 depressions 
were noted at Cocos and Niue stations. f0F2 depressions were 
also observed as high latitudes due to minor geomagnetic activity 
associated with high speed solar wind stream. Expect mild to 
moderate depressions for MUFs at mid to high latitudes due to 
increase in the geomagnetic activity over the next 48 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 378 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:   118000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list