[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 26 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 27 10:30:14 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Mar             28 Mar             29 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day, 26 March. 
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low over the next 3 
days with a slight chance of C-class flares from active region 
1704. The solar wind speed ranged from 410 to 360km/s over the 
last 24 hours and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was mostly northward. Expect similar conditions to prevail 
for the next 24 hours. Note, a low latitude coronal hole is approaching 
its geoeffective position and its associated high speed solar 
wind is likely to impact the Earth on 28 March. Solar wind speeds 
were enhanced (600km/s) during the same phase of previous solar 
rotation.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21111001
      Darwin               4   2212111-
      Townsville           4   2211111-
      Learmonth            5   32013001
      Norfolk Island       2   11111011
      Culgoora             1   1--10001
      Camden               1   11000001
      Canberra             0   1100000-
      Hobart               1   21100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     0   1100000-
      Casey                9   3432100-
      Mawson               4   32112000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0001 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Mar     6    Quiet
28 Mar    30    Active to Minor Storm
29 Mar    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 25 March and 
is current for 28 Mar only. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet 
during the UT day, 26 March. Geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to remain mostly Quiet during the next 24 hours. Conditions are 
expected to become Unsettled to Active on 28 March with isolated 
cases of Minor Storm levels at high latitudes due to a returning 
coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Mar      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Mar    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Mar    69    Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar    69    Near predicted monthly values
29 Mar    30    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: The HF propagation conditions were mostly normal during 
UT day, 26 March, however depressions were noted at Niue Island 
station during the local night time hours. Expect similar conditions 
to prevail over the next 2 days. On 29 March expect moderate 
depressions due to a geomagnetic activity induced by a high speed 
solar wind stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 377 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    42700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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