[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 26 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 27 10:30:14 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day, 26 March.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low over the next 3
days with a slight chance of C-class flares from active region
1704. The solar wind speed ranged from 410 to 360km/s over the
last 24 hours and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field was mostly northward. Expect similar conditions to prevail
for the next 24 hours. Note, a low latitude coronal hole is approaching
its geoeffective position and its associated high speed solar
wind is likely to impact the Earth on 28 March. Solar wind speeds
were enhanced (600km/s) during the same phase of previous solar
rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 21111001
Darwin 4 2212111-
Townsville 4 2211111-
Learmonth 5 32013001
Norfolk Island 2 11111011
Culgoora 1 1--10001
Camden 1 11000001
Canberra 0 1100000-
Hobart 1 21100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 1100000-
Casey 9 3432100-
Mawson 4 32112000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0001 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Mar 6 Quiet
28 Mar 30 Active to Minor Storm
29 Mar 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 25 March and
is current for 28 Mar only. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet
during the UT day, 26 March. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to remain mostly Quiet during the next 24 hours. Conditions are
expected to become Unsettled to Active on 28 March with isolated
cases of Minor Storm levels at high latitudes due to a returning
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
28 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Mar 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Mar 69 Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar 69 Near predicted monthly values
29 Mar 30 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The HF propagation conditions were mostly normal during
UT day, 26 March, however depressions were noted at Niue Island
station during the local night time hours. Expect similar conditions
to prevail over the next 2 days. On 29 March expect moderate
depressions due to a geomagnetic activity induced by a high speed
solar wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 42700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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