[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 13 issued 0400 UT on 26 Mar 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 26 15:00:26 EST 2013
CORRECTION RESENT DUE TO COMPUTER PROBLEMS
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day, 25 March.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low over the next 3
days with a slight chance of C-class flares from active region
1704. The solar wind speed ranged from 380 to 410km/s over the
last 24 hours and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field was mostly northward. Expect similar conditions to prevail
for the next 24 hours. Note, a low latitude coronal hole is near
the central meridian of the solar disk and its associated fast
speed stream is expected to impact the Earth about 28 March.
Solar wind speeds were enhanced during the same phase of previous
solar rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Darwin 6 22222122
Townsville 6 12221222
Learmonth 4 11212121
Norfolk Island 3 11111112
Culgoora 3 10111112
Camden 2 10111011
Canberra 1 10110001
Hobart 2 11110111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 7 23320112
Mawson 4 22111111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2121 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Mar 4 Quiet
27 Mar 6 Quiet
28 Mar 30 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 25 March and
is current for 28 Mar only. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet
during the UT day, 25 March. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to remain mostly Quiet during the next 48 hours. Conditions are
expected to become Unsettled to Active on 28 March with isolated
cases of Minor Storm levels at high latitudes due to a returning
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
28 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Mar 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Mar 69 Near predicted monthly values
27 Mar 69 Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar 69 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The HF propagation conditions were mostly normal during
UT day, 25 March, however depressions were noted at Niue Island
station during the local night time hours. Expect similar conditions
to prevail over the next 3 days. On 29 March expect moderate
depressions due to a geomagnetic activity induced by a high speed
solar wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 413 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 45100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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