[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 13 issued 0400 UT on 26 Mar 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 26 15:00:26 EST 2013


CORRECTION RESENT DUE TO COMPUTER PROBLEMS
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Mar             27 Mar             28 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day, 25 March. 
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low over the next 3 
days with a slight chance of C-class flares from active region 
1704. The solar wind speed ranged from 380 to 410km/s over the 
last 24 hours and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was mostly northward. Expect similar conditions to prevail 
for the next 24 hours. Note, a low latitude coronal hole is near 
the central meridian of the solar disk and its associated fast 
speed stream is expected to impact the Earth about 28 March. 
Solar wind speeds were enhanced during the same phase of previous 
solar rotation.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111112
      Darwin               6   22222122
      Townsville           6   12221222
      Learmonth            4   11212121
      Norfolk Island       3   11111112
      Culgoora             3   10111112
      Camden               2   10111011
      Canberra             1   10110001
      Hobart               2   11110111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                7   23320112
      Mawson               4   22111111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2121 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Mar     4    Quiet
27 Mar     6    Quiet
28 Mar    30    Active to Minor Storm

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 25 March and 
is current for 28 Mar only. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet 
during the UT day, 25 March. Geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to remain mostly Quiet during the next 48 hours. Conditions are 
expected to become Unsettled to Active on 28 March with isolated 
cases of Minor Storm levels at high latitudes due to a returning 
coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Mar      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Mar    67

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Mar    69    Near predicted monthly values
27 Mar    69    Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar    69    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: The HF propagation conditions were mostly normal during 
UT day, 25 March, however depressions were noted at Niue Island 
station during the local night time hours. Expect similar conditions 
to prevail over the next 3 days. On 29 March expect moderate 
depressions due to a geomagnetic activity induced by a high speed 
solar wind stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 413 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    45100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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