[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 23 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 24 10:30:17 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Mar             25 Mar             26 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: There have only been weak B class solar flares during 
the previous 24 hours and the background X ray flux is declining 
and presently near the B1 level. There are very few active regions 
on the visible side of the sun and solar activity is expected 
to decline. There is only an isolated chance of a C class solar 
flare. The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux has decreased below 100 
and is still trending downward. LASCO observations show a strong 
CME launched from the south west limb near 12 UT on 23 March. 
This is a far side event and not Earthward pointing. The solar 
wind near Earth decreased throughout 23 March reaching a minimum 
of about 350 km/s at 17 UT. A small shock in the solar wind density 
and speed occurred near 17:25 UT and since then the speed has 
increased back to about 420 km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated 
in the range -5 nT to +5 nT throughout most of 23 March. The 
amplitude of the fluctuations increased after the arrival of 
the small shock near 17:25 UT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 23 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   21123223
      Darwin              10   32223223
      Townsville          10   22223233
      Learmonth            9   22123233
      Norfolk Island       8   21123223
      Culgoora             9   21123224
      Camden               9   21123224
      Canberra             6   1112322-
      Hobart              10   11223234    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    12   11235222
      Casey               13   3342232-
      Mawson               8   32222231

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar : 
      Darwin               5   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1001 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Mar     4    Quiet
25 Mar     4    Quiet
26 Mar     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled throughout 
most of 23 March. Mid-latitude K indices were mostly in the range 
of 1 to 3 and the Australian Dst index has decreased to near 
zero. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly quiet 
during the next 48 hours. Brief intervals of unsettled conditions 
are possible.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Near normal conditions can be expected for most of 24 
March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Mar    76

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Mar    75    Near predicted monthly values
25 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values
26 Mar    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were significantly enhanced 
at many Australian stations during the day time hours of 23 March. 
They returned to very close to normal (T=69) or slightly below 
normal during the evening hours. Day time enhancements are possible 
again today. However, the propagation conditions are basically 
near normal and they are expected to remain near normal for most 
circuits during the next 48 hours. The Penticton 10.7 cm solar 
flux has decreased to below 100.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 400 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    57500 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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