[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 23 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 24 10:30:17 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: There have only been weak B class solar flares during
the previous 24 hours and the background X ray flux is declining
and presently near the B1 level. There are very few active regions
on the visible side of the sun and solar activity is expected
to decline. There is only an isolated chance of a C class solar
flare. The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux has decreased below 100
and is still trending downward. LASCO observations show a strong
CME launched from the south west limb near 12 UT on 23 March.
This is a far side event and not Earthward pointing. The solar
wind near Earth decreased throughout 23 March reaching a minimum
of about 350 km/s at 17 UT. A small shock in the solar wind density
and speed occurred near 17:25 UT and since then the speed has
increased back to about 420 km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated
in the range -5 nT to +5 nT throughout most of 23 March. The
amplitude of the fluctuations increased after the arrival of
the small shock near 17:25 UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 21123223
Darwin 10 32223223
Townsville 10 22223233
Learmonth 9 22123233
Norfolk Island 8 21123223
Culgoora 9 21123224
Camden 9 21123224
Canberra 6 1112322-
Hobart 10 11223234
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Mar :
Macquarie Island 12 11235222
Casey 13 3342232-
Mawson 8 32222231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar :
Darwin 5 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1001 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Mar 4 Quiet
25 Mar 4 Quiet
26 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled throughout
most of 23 March. Mid-latitude K indices were mostly in the range
of 1 to 3 and the Australian Dst index has decreased to near
zero. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly quiet
during the next 48 hours. Brief intervals of unsettled conditions
are possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Near normal conditions can be expected for most of 24
March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Mar 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Mar 75 Near predicted monthly values
25 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values
26 Mar 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were significantly enhanced
at many Australian stations during the day time hours of 23 March.
They returned to very close to normal (T=69) or slightly below
normal during the evening hours. Day time enhancements are possible
again today. However, the propagation conditions are basically
near normal and they are expected to remain near normal for most
circuits during the next 48 hours. The Penticton 10.7 cm solar
flux has decreased to below 100.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 57500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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