[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 22 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 23 10:30:16 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1.6  21/2204UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Mar             24 Mar             25 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Very low to low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41              90/34

COMMENT: A short duration M1.6 class solar flare from Active 
Region 1692 occurred at 22:04 UT on 21 March. A strong Coronal 
Mass Ejection was launched toward the west in association with 
this flare. LASCO observations show another CME launched at about 
02 UT toward the south east. Neither of these CMEs are Earthward 
directed. There have been ongoing C and B class solar flares 
from Active Region 1692 located on the western limb. Solar activity 
is declining and the 10.7 cm solar flux is trending slowly downward. 
The solar wind speed has been trending downward and is presently 
just under 400 km/s. Bz has been mostly +5 nT though with brief 
excursions to -5 nT. The solar wind speed may increase later 
in the day due to weak coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12111221
      Darwin               5   12121222
      Townsville           8   22222232
      Learmonth            5   12111230
      Norfolk Island       4   12111121
      Culgoora             4   11111221
      Camden               3   12011121
      Canberra             2   11011120
      Hobart               3   12111120    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     1   00010020
      Casey               11   34331122
      Mawson              15   23121161

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             11   3441 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Mar     5    Quiet
24 Mar     4    Quiet
25 Mar     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet throughout all of 
22 March. Mid-latitude K indices were mostly in the range of 
0 to 2 and the Australian Dst index has decreased to -10 nT at 
the time of this report. Geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to remain quiet during the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Near normal conditions can be expected for most of 23 
March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Mar    75

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values
24 Mar    65    Near predicted monthly values
25 Mar    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were near normal during 22 
March and they are expected to remain near normal at most locations 
during the next 48 hours. The 10.7 cm solar flux is still trending 
downwards and the T index is expected to weaken as Active Region 
1692 disappears behind the western limb.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 438 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    92300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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