[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 21 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 22 10:30:16 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY

Activity 21 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.6    2204UT  possible   lower  Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Mar             23 Mar             24 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Very low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: There was a C3.5 class solar flare at 18:22 UT from 
Active Region 1692 located very close to the western limb. A 
brief M1.1 class flare is in progress at the time of this report. 
However, solar activity is currently expected to decline during 
the next 48 hours. Enhanced solar wind speed and Bz southward 
conditions during the first half of 21 March may have been due 
to the arrival of the weak partial halo CME observed late on 
17 March. The solar wind speed was nearly 600 km/s at 01 UT and 
has declined to <450 km/s. Bz was nearly -8 nT at 02 UT and it 
has trended northward throughout the day. Bz is presently about 
+6 nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 21 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   33211112
      Darwin               6   33211002
      Townsville          12   34322223
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Norfolk Island       7   33211112
      Culgoora             5   33210101
      Camden               5   33210001
      Canberra             5   32200---
      Hobart               6   33311001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    13   45411000
      Casey               16   55320112
      Mawson              38   67523122
      Davis               15   3-------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   2321 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Mar     6    Quiet
23 Mar     5    Quiet
24 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled during the first 
half of 21 March. Mid-latitude K indices were in the range of 
3 to 4 and the Australian Dst index decreased to -82 nT at 04 
UT. These unsettled conditions may have occurred because of the 
arrival of the weak partial halo CME observed late on 17 March. 
The geomagnetic conditions were quiet during the second half 
of 21 March and are expected to remain quiet during the next 
48 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Near normal conditions can be expected for most of 22 
March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Mar    69

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values
23 Mar    65    Near predicted monthly values
24 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to remain near 
normal at most locations during the next 48 hours. However, the 
10.7 cm solar flux is trending downwards and this suggests the 
T index may also decline at some stations. Short wave fadeouts 
are possible. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 472 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    87800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list