[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 20 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 21 10:30:20 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Mar             22 Mar             23 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Very low to low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             100/48

COMMENT: There was a C5.5 class solar flare at 01:02 from Active 
Region 1698. There were several other minor C and B class solar 
flares throughout 19th March. Solar activity is expected to be 
low declining to very low during the next three days. There is 
still a small chance of an M class flare before the current cluster 
of active regions disappear behind the western limb. Region 1686 
(S12) which previously produced M-flare(s) is due to return around 
21 Mar. The solar wind speed increased to 700 km/s during 17 
UT but has returned to 500 km/s. Bz has been fluctuating between 
+3 nT and -3 nT with brief excursions below -5 nT. The partial 
halo CME observed late on 17th March may lead to unsettled to 
active geomagnetic conditions late today.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22113323
      Darwin               7   221122-3
      Townsville          15   33333333
      Learmonth           10   23223---
      Norfolk Island       7   22112223
      Culgoora             8   12113323
      Camden               9   22113323
      Canberra             5   12112222
      Hobart               8   22112323    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    14   43313422
      Casey               17   44332333
      Mawson              26   45223336
      Davis               17   34333---

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1100 1022     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Mar    12    Unsettled
22 Mar     6    Quiet
23 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The partial halo CME observed late on 17th March may 
lead to unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions late today.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Near normal conditions can be expected for most of 21st 
of March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Mar    67

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values
23 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions have returned to near normal 
at most locations. The 10 cm solar flux is presently trending 
downwards. Propagation conditions are not expected to be strongly 
enhanced during the next 24 to 48 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 464 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    33300 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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