[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 19 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 20 10:30:33 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Mar             21 Mar             22 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: The largest solar flare during the previous 24 hours 
was a C4.3 event from Active Region 1698 at 01:17 UT. There were 
three more small C class flares later in the UT day. Solar activity 
is expected to be low with isolated C class flares and a small 
chance of an M class flare. The solar wind conditions remain 
stable with speeds in the range 450 to 500 km/s and Bz mostly 
northward with weak negative excursions down to -5 nT. Although 
a number of CMEs have been observed, none of them are Earthward 
directed and expected to be geoeffective. A partial halo CME 
observed late on 17th March may deliver a glancing blow to the 
Earth and lead to unsettled geomagnetic conditions on 21st March.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22211112
      Darwin               5   22201212
      Townsville          12   33322233
      Learmonth           10   33222223
      Norfolk Island       5   22211112
      Culgoora             5   22211112
      Camden               4   22201112
      Canberra             2   11200001
      Hobart               3   12200112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    13   3600000-
      Casey               10   3432110-
      Mawson               8   43211121
      Davis                -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2111 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Mar     6    Quiet
21 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
22 Mar     6    Quiet

COMMENT: The Australian region Dst index has completed its gradual 
recovery from the geomagnetic storm conditions of 17th and 18th 
March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal conditions can be expected at most latitudes 
for the 20th of March. Equatorial stations may experience local 
depressions and enhancements in their MUFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Mar    52

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Mar    60    About 5% below predicted monthly values
21 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were enhanced and sometimes 
depressed at low latitude stations during 19th March. Conditions 
were mildly depressed at middle latitudes, though continuing 
to trend back toward normal conditions. There has been a small 
decrease in the 10 cm solar flux which may limit the full recovery 
of the T index. However, near normal HF propagation conditions 
are still expected during the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 520 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    47600 K  Bz:   7 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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