[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 19 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 20 10:30:33 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: The largest solar flare during the previous 24 hours
was a C4.3 event from Active Region 1698 at 01:17 UT. There were
three more small C class flares later in the UT day. Solar activity
is expected to be low with isolated C class flares and a small
chance of an M class flare. The solar wind conditions remain
stable with speeds in the range 450 to 500 km/s and Bz mostly
northward with weak negative excursions down to -5 nT. Although
a number of CMEs have been observed, none of them are Earthward
directed and expected to be geoeffective. A partial halo CME
observed late on 17th March may deliver a glancing blow to the
Earth and lead to unsettled geomagnetic conditions on 21st March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 22211112
Darwin 5 22201212
Townsville 12 33322233
Learmonth 10 33222223
Norfolk Island 5 22211112
Culgoora 5 22211112
Camden 4 22201112
Canberra 2 11200001
Hobart 3 12200112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Mar :
Macquarie Island 13 3600000-
Casey 10 3432110-
Mawson 8 43211121
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Mar 6 Quiet
21 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The Australian region Dst index has completed its gradual
recovery from the geomagnetic storm conditions of 17th and 18th
March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal conditions can be expected at most latitudes
for the 20th of March. Equatorial stations may experience local
depressions and enhancements in their MUFs.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Mar 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Mar 60 About 5% below predicted monthly values
21 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions were enhanced and sometimes
depressed at low latitude stations during 19th March. Conditions
were mildly depressed at middle latitudes, though continuing
to trend back toward normal conditions. There has been a small
decrease in the 10 cm solar flux which may limit the full recovery
of the T index. However, near normal HF propagation conditions
are still expected during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 520 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 47600 K Bz: 7 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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