[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 18 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 19 10:30:15 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Mar             20 Mar             21 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with C class flares mostly 
from active regions 1698 and 1700. Active region 1698 will soon 
disappear behind the western limb. Solar activity is expected 
to be low to moderate during the next three days. The solar wind 
speed continues to decline from peak values exceeding 700 km/s 
during the previous two days. At present the solar wind speed 
is in the range 450 to 490 km/s. The IMF remains weakly northward 
(2 to 5 nT) and the solar wind number density has returned to 
near normal values (1 cm^3). ACE EPAM data indicated an energetic 
ion enhancement event beginning at 18/0520UT, but the energetic 
particle fluxes have been declining.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 18 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   33321122
      Darwin               9   33322122
      Townsville          14   33333233
      Learmonth           11   33332222
      Norfolk Island       9   42221132
      Culgoora             7   23321111
      Camden               6   23321011
      Canberra             6   23320011
      Hobart               6   23321011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     7   23321022
      Casey               11   33432012
      Mawson              13   34333122
      Davis                -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        32
           Planetary             57   2166 6765     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
20 Mar     6    Quiet
21 Mar     6    Quiet

COMMENT: The minor storm conditions of the previous two days 
continue to gradually abate with the Australian region Dst index 
steadily increasing from approximately -100 nT to -45 nT at the 
time of this report. However, unsettled geomagnetic conditions 
are still possible throughout the remainder of the storm recovery 
phase. In the IPS magnetometer data for 18 Mar, a weak (12 nT) 
impulse was observed at 0614 UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Poor-fair      Poor-fair      Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal to fair conditions can be expected at most latitudes 
for the 19th of March, trending toward normal on the 20th and 
21st.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Mar    20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Mar    50    About 10% below predicted monthly values
20 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values
21 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 17 March 
and is current for 18-19 Mar. HF propagation conditions were 
strongly depressed at most latitudes throughout 18th March but 
have been trending to near normal conditions at most stations 
throughout the night and early morning. Depressed conditions 
and short wave fadeouts are still possible on the 19th March. 
Near normal MUF values are expected on 20th and 21st March.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.4E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 618 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:   281000 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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