[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 17 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 18 10:30:20 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 126/79


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Mar             19 Mar             20 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with C2 X-ray flares occurring 
over the last 24 hours. No new CMEs were observed. A strong shock 
was observed in the solar wind at 0529UT on 17 Mar indicating 
the expected arrival of the CME observed on the 15th of March. 
The solar wind speed peaked just below 800 km/s before easing 
to 600 km/s at time of writing. The IMF Bz component ranged between 
+10/-20 nT following the shock, remaining southward the majority 
of the time. During the later half of the 17th, Bz had a sustained 
southward excursion of at least -5nT and up to -10nT, easing 
somewhat towards neutral at the time of writing. The >10MeV proton 
flux briefly exceed 100 sfu towards the end of the 16th and start 
of the 17th but has dropped below this threshold level and continued 
to fall. Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance of 
moderate activity over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed 
is expected to continue to ease back to ambient levels over the 
next 2 days. The IMF Bz component may continue to have southward 
excursions of significance over the next 24 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Minor to Major 
Storm

Estimated Indices 17 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      33   23554554
      Darwin              31   13554553
      Townsville          37   33555554
      Learmonth           48   2366-654
      Norfolk Island      26   22543553
      Culgoora            32   12554554
      Camden              34   12555554
      Canberra            30   04544553
      Hobart              55   23565674    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    88   1257777-
      Casey               48   3575453-
      Mawson             111   4487684-
      Davis               40   346-----

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar : 
      Darwin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville          11   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           18   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        7   (Quiet)
      Gingin              46   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            50   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        29
           Planetary             46                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   3432 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Mar    25    Active
19 Mar    12    Unsettled
20 Mar     7    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 15 March and 
is current for 16-18 Mar. In the IPS magnetometer data for 17 
Mar, a weak (43nT) impulse was observed at 0600UT. This followed 
the solar wind shock seen in ACE data at 0529UT indicating the 
arrival of the CME observed on the 15th of March. Following this 
times, Minor Storm levels of activity have been seen across all 
latitudes with some Major Storm periods observed. Active conditions 
with possible isolated Minor Storm periods are expected over 
the next 24 hours, before reducing to Unsettled on the 19th of 
March. Conditions are expected to return to mostly Quiet on the 
20th.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Fair to poor conditions at most latitudes can be expected 
for the 18th of March, improving on the 19th and 20th.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Mar    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Mar     0    30 to 40% below predicted monthly values
19 Mar    40    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
20 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 17 March 
and is current for 18-19 Mar. Significant MUF depressions of 
up to 40% are being observed in mainland and southern Australian 
regions. These conditions are expected for the remainder of the 
UT day 18th March. Milder depressions of around 20% at most are 
expected for the 19th March, returning to predicted monthly values 
on the 20th.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.4E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 443 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    79800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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