[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 17 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 18 10:30:20 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low with C2 X-ray flares occurring
over the last 24 hours. No new CMEs were observed. A strong shock
was observed in the solar wind at 0529UT on 17 Mar indicating
the expected arrival of the CME observed on the 15th of March.
The solar wind speed peaked just below 800 km/s before easing
to 600 km/s at time of writing. The IMF Bz component ranged between
+10/-20 nT following the shock, remaining southward the majority
of the time. During the later half of the 17th, Bz had a sustained
southward excursion of at least -5nT and up to -10nT, easing
somewhat towards neutral at the time of writing. The >10MeV proton
flux briefly exceed 100 sfu towards the end of the 16th and start
of the 17th but has dropped below this threshold level and continued
to fall. Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance of
moderate activity over the next 3 days. The solar wind speed
is expected to continue to ease back to ambient levels over the
next 2 days. The IMF Bz component may continue to have southward
excursions of significance over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Minor to Major
Storm
Estimated Indices 17 Mar : A K
Australian Region 33 23554554
Darwin 31 13554553
Townsville 37 33555554
Learmonth 48 2366-654
Norfolk Island 26 22543553
Culgoora 32 12554554
Camden 34 12555554
Canberra 30 04544553
Hobart 55 23565674
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Mar :
Macquarie Island 88 1257777-
Casey 48 3575453-
Mawson 111 4487684-
Davis 40 346-----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar :
Darwin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 11 (Quiet)
Learmonth 18 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 7 (Quiet)
Gingin 46 (Unsettled)
Canberra 50 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 29
Planetary 46
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 3432 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Mar 25 Active
19 Mar 12 Unsettled
20 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 15 March and
is current for 16-18 Mar. In the IPS magnetometer data for 17
Mar, a weak (43nT) impulse was observed at 0600UT. This followed
the solar wind shock seen in ACE data at 0529UT indicating the
arrival of the CME observed on the 15th of March. Following this
times, Minor Storm levels of activity have been seen across all
latitudes with some Major Storm periods observed. Active conditions
with possible isolated Minor Storm periods are expected over
the next 24 hours, before reducing to Unsettled on the 19th of
March. Conditions are expected to return to mostly Quiet on the
20th.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Fair to poor conditions at most latitudes can be expected
for the 18th of March, improving on the 19th and 20th.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Mar 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Mar 0 30 to 40% below predicted monthly values
19 Mar 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
20 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 17 March
and is current for 18-19 Mar. Significant MUF depressions of
up to 40% are being observed in mainland and southern Australian
regions. These conditions are expected for the remainder of the
UT day 18th March. Milder depressions of around 20% at most are
expected for the 19th March, returning to predicted monthly values
on the 20th.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 79800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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