[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 16 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 17 10:30:15 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 126/79


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Mar             18 Mar             19 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with a series of C class 
flares, the greatest a C2, produced by region AR1698(S19W53). 
A CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO and STEREO-A coronagraph images, 
first appearing at 1439UT. This is a front side event but is 
directed to the north west and is unlikely to be geoeffective. 
The solar wind speed as measured by ACE remained steady at around 
450km/s over the UT day with the IMF Bz component ranging between 
+/-5nT. Solar activity is expected to remain at mostly Low levels 
for the next 3 days with some chance of M class activity. The 
CME observed on the 15th of March is expected to arrive within 
the first half of the UT day on the 17th of March bringing significantly 
faster solar wind speeds and density.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   23222212
      Darwin               7   23222212
      Townsville           7   2322221-
      Learmonth           13   33333322
      Norfolk Island       5   22222111
      Culgoora             7   23222212
      Camden               7   23222212
      Canberra             4   12212101
      Hobart               8   23322212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Mar :
      Davis               15   3-------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   0322 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Mar    45    Minor to Major Storm
18 Mar    20    Active
19 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 15 March and 
is current for 16-18 Mar. Magnetic conditions have been mostly 
Quiet with some Unsettled periods. Conditions are expected to 
reach Minor to Major storm levels on the 17th of March UT due 
to the expected arrival of a CME observed on the 15th.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Fair           Fair-poor      Poor(PCA)
18 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor(PCA)
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Fair to poor conditions at most latitudes, worse at 
high latitudes, can be expected for the later part of the 17th 
of March UT due to expected significant geomagnetic activity. 
A PCA event is in progress due to high levels of energetic solar 
proton flux.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Mar    93

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Mar    80    Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar    40    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
19 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 3 was issued 
on 15 March and is current for 17-19 Mar. HF propagation conditions 
are normal to good. Significant geomagnetic activity expected 
for the 17th of March is likely to reduce the MUFs for HF communication 
from midway through the 17th and into the 18th of March. Due 
to the significant enhancements currently being seen compared 
with the monthly prediction, the depressions compared with the 
predicted values may be only around 15%. More significant depressions 
are possible, particularly in southern and polar regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 443 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:   133000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list