[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 15 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 16 10:30:15 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0709UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 123/76


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Mar             17 Mar             18 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Moderate with a long duration 
M1 flare from region AR1692(N09E06) peaking around 07UT. A halo 
CME was observed in association with this event in SOHO/LASCO 
coronagraphs. Combined with STEREO coronagraph imagery, analysis 
suggests that the main part of the CME appears to be directed 
to the east and north, however a significant amount of the material 
is likely directed towards the Earth. This is expected to arrive 
late on the 16th of March or early on the 17th UT. A weak shock 
was seen in the ACE solar wind data just before 05UT on the 15th 
of March, most likely the arrival of the CME observed on the 
12th of March. The solar wind speed peaked just below 500 km/s 
before diminishing to around 450 km/s. The IMF Bz component went 
as low as -10nT for less than an hour before swinging northward 
for the remainder of the day. More significant solar wind speeds, 
potentially up to around 800 km/s, are expected following the 
arrival of the CME observed on the 15th. Solar activity is expected 
to be low to moderate for the next 3 days, with some chance of 
further M class flare activity.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   14321111
      Darwin               8   243-1002
      Townsville           9   143211--
      Learmonth           10   24322122
      Norfolk Island       6   13321111
      Culgoora             7   13321112
      Camden               7   14320011
      Canberra             8   05310001
      Hobart               6   14320001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Mar :
      Davis               37   355-----

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   0101 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Mar    15    Quiet to Unsettled, chance of Major Storm late 
                in the day
17 Mar    60    Storm Levels
18 Mar    20    Active

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 15 March and 
is current for 16-18 Mar. In the IPS magnetometer data for 15 
Mar, a weak (22nT) impulse was observed at 0527UT. This was most 
likely due to the arrival of the CME observed on the 12th of 
March. Magnetic conditions reached Active levels, with some Minor 
Storm levels in polar regions, before reducing to mostly Quiet. 
A more significant CME impact is expected late on the 16th or 
early on the 17th UT, causing up to Major Storm levels of activity.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Mar      Poor           Poor           Poor
18 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are currently being 
observed. Poor conditions at most latitudes, worse at high latitudes, 
on the 17th of March UT due to expected significant geomagnetic 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Mar   101

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Mar    95    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Mar    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Mar    40    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 3 was issued 
on 15 March and is current for 17-19 Mar. HF propagation conditions 
are normal to good. Significant geomagnetic activity expected 
for the 17th of March is likely to reduce the MUFs for HF communication 
from midway through the 17th and into the 19th of March. Due 
to the significant enhancements currently being seen compared 
with the monthly prediction, the depressions compared with the 
predicted values may be only around 15%. More significant depressions 
are possible, particularly in southern and polar regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 315 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    43900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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