[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 14 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 15 10:30:14 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 123/76


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Mar             16 Mar             17 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low with a single C2 flare from region 
AR1691(N12W37). No new coronal mass ejections were observed. 
Solar activity is expected to remain at Low levels for the next 
3 days, with a slight chance of isolated M class activity. Solar 
wind conditions began the UT day of the 14th of March ambient. 
At around 12UT the wind speed began steadily increasing to around 
380 km/s at time of writing. This coincided with an increase 
in plasma density, total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) 
strength and the fluctuation envelope of the Bz component of 
the IMF from around +/- 3 nT to +/- 7nT. The combination of these 
observations is suggestive of the arrival of a very weak corotating 
interaction region (CIR). On its own, this would be of little 
significance however a glancing blow from the CME observed on 
the 12th of March UT is still expected to occur sometime on the 
15th of March. The combination of these two factors may lead 
to some more significant density, speed and magnetic field effects 
in the solar wind over the next 2 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet with an 
isolated Unsettled period

Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12113212
      Darwin               6   12113212
      Townsville           7   12223212
      Learmonth            9   23123322
      Norfolk Island       6   22123211
      Culgoora             5   12113211
      Camden               5   11013212
      Canberra             2   01012101
      Hobart               3   11012102    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Mar :
      Davis               10   23223---

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   2011 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Mar    16    Active period followed by Unsettled conditions
16 Mar    12    Unsettled
17 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet with an isolated Unsettled 
period observed in the hours following 12UT. Mostly Quiet conditions 
with possible Unsettled periods are expected up until the anticipated 
arrival of the edge of a CME, sometime on the UT day 15th of 
March. An isolated Active period followed by Unsettled conditions 
are expected following the arrival of this CME. Unsettled conditions 
can be expected to remain on the 16th, calming to Quiet to Unsettled 
on the 17th.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are currently being 
observed. Some poorer conditions may be experience in high latitude 
regions on the 15th and 16th, largely recovering by the 17th.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Mar   102

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Mar    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Mar    80    Near predicted monthly values
17 Mar    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are normal to good. Some mildly 
depressed MUFs may be experienced during local night in polar 
and southern regions on the 15th of March UT. Some depressed 
periods may also be observed in central Australian latitudes 
on the 16th of March UT. MUFs should return to predicted monthly 
values or better for all regions by the 17th of March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 315 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:    21400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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