[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 13 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 14 10:30:17 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 123/76


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Mar             15 Mar             16 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low with several C1 class flares. 
The most significant event was a C1 flare from region AR1692(N09E27) 
beginning late in the UT day yesterday and ending around 0130UT 
today. A CME was seen in association with this event in SOHO/LASCO 
imagery. The material appears to be largely directed to the East 
and is not expected to be geo-effective. Solar wind conditions 
are ambient. Solar activity is expected to remain at Low levels 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21110011
      Darwin               2   21110001
      Townsville           5   22211121
      Learmonth            5   22211121
      Norfolk Island       2   21110011
      Culgoora             2   11111011
      Camden               1   11110001
      Canberra             0   10100000
      Hobart               2   21210000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Mar :
      Davis                6   22211123

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1121 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Mar     5    Quiet
15 Mar    16    Unsettled to Active
16 Mar    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet. Quiet conditions are 
expected for the 14th. A glancing blow from a CME is expected 
sometime on the 15th, causing an isolated Active period followed 
by Unsettled conditions for the remainder of the 15th and the 
16th.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for 
the next few days. Some poorer conditions may be experience in 
high latitude regions on the 15th, largely recovering by the 
16th.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Mar    94

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Mar    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Mar    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Mar    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are normal to good due to 
enhanced ionising solar flux and quiet Geomagnetic conditions. 
Good conditions are expected to continue for the next day. On 
day 2, the 15th of March, variable conditions may be experienced 
due to mild geomagnetic activity. MUFs may be depressed at times 
in polar and southern regions. MUFs should be around predicted 
monthly values or above for all regions on the 16th, with some 
chance of depressions if the expected geomagnetic activity it 
stronger than anticipated.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 321 km/sec  Density:    7.1 p/cc  Temp:    30800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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