[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 12 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 13 10:30:15 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 123/76


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Mar             14 Mar             15 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity is at low levels. A long duration C2 
class X-ray flare occurred, peaking at 1107UT. GONG imagery indicates 
this was in association with an erupting filament near region 
AR1690(N25W06). A CME was seen in probable association with this 
event in SOHO/LASCO and STEREO coronagraphs. The bulk of the 
ejected material is directed to the north of the ecliptic but 
a glancing blow from this event is likely sometime around the 
start of the UT day 15th of March. Solar wind conditions are 
ambient. Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   21222212
      Darwin               6   21212222
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            8   22222322
      Norfolk Island       5   21212112
      Culgoora             5   21122112
      Camden               5   31122111
      Canberra             3   10112111
      Hobart               5   21113111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Mar :
      Davis               10   22324222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2220 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Mar     5    Quiet
14 Mar     5    Quiet
15 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to be 
Quiet on the 13th and 14th of March UT. A possible glancing blow 
from a CME may cause an isolated Active period followed by Unsettled 
conditions on the 15th.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for 
the next few days. Some poorer conditions may be experience in 
high latitude regions on the 15th.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Mar    92

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Mar    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Mar    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
15 Mar    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are normal to good due to 
enhanced ionising solar flux and quiet Geomagnetic conditions. 
Good conditions are expected to continue for the next 2 days. 
On day 3, the 15th of March, variable conditions may be experienced 
due to mild geomagnetic activity. MUFs may be slightly depressed 
at times in polar and southern regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 309 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:    27000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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