[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 11 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 12 10:30:14 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Mar             13 Mar             14 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             118/70

COMMENT: Solar activity is Low with a single C1 flare occurring 
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind conditions are ambient. Multiple 
sunspot regions are present on the visible Sun, however none 
have significant X-ray flare potential. Major flare activity 
is not expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22211111
      Darwin               5   32201111
      Townsville           6   32212111
      Learmonth            6   23222111
      Norfolk Island       4   22111111
      Culgoora             5   22211112
      Camden               4   32201000
      Canberra             2   22200000
      Hobart               3   22201000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Mar :
      Davis                7   33221111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1000 0112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Mar     5    Quiet
13 Mar     5    Quiet
14 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain 
so for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for 
the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Mar    93

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Mar    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Mar    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Mar    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are normal to good due to 
enhanced ionising solar flux and quiet Geomagnetic conditions. 
Good conditions are expected to continue for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 320 km/sec  Density:    6.4 p/cc  Temp:    26900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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