[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 10 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 11 10:30:36 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 119/71


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Mar             12 Mar             13 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be mostly Very Low to 
Low. Solar wind speeds ranged between approximately 300-360 km/s 
during 10 March and are expected to remain predominantly below 
400 km/s for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11110212
      Darwin               4   2-110212
      Learmonth            6   12121322
      Norfolk Island       4   11111212
      Culgoora             3   11110212
      Camden               2   11000212
      Canberra             1   01000101
      Hobart               3   12100211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Mar :
      Davis                8   23222222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2112 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Mar     5    Quiet
12 Mar     5    Quiet
13 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be predominantly 
Quiet for the next few days with the small chance of isolated 
Unsettled periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for 
the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Mar    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Mar    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Mar    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Mar    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for 
the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 345 km/sec  Density:    6.5 p/cc  Temp:    40000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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