[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 09 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 10 10:30:15 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Mar             11 Mar             12 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be mostly Very Low to 
Low. Solar wind speeds ranged between approximately 320-380 km/s 
during 9 March and are expected to remain predominantly below 
400 km/s for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22112221
      Darwin               6   22112222
      Townsville           5   2212221-
      Learmonth            7   22222222
      Alice Springs        5   2211221-
      Norfolk Island       5   22122121
      Gingin               6   2212222-
      Camden               4   12112121
      Canberra             2   11012110
      Hobart               4   12113110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     3   1001310-
      Casey               11   3432221-
      Mawson              11   4321232-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0001 0112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Mar     5    Quiet
11 Mar     5    Quiet
12 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be predominantly 
Quiet for the next few days with the small chance of isolated 
Unsettled periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for 
the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Mar    97

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Mar    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Mar    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Mar    90    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for 
the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 313 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    31400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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