[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 08 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 9 10:30:14 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 115/66


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Mar             10 Mar             11 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   118/70             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be mostly Very Low to 
Low with the slight chance of Moderate activity. Solar wind speeds 
ranged between approximately 300-350 km/s during 8 March and 
are expected to remain predominantly below 400 km/s for the next 
few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111011
      Darwin               3   11110112
      Townsville           4   112220--
      Learmonth            6   22221221
      Alice Springs        2   111110--
      Norfolk Island       3   11111111
      Gingin               2   111110--
      Camden               1   00110011
      Canberra             0   00010000
      Hobart               1   10110011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Mar :
      Casey                6   133200--
      Mawson               5   113120--

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0011 1012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Mar     5    Quiet
10 Mar     5    Quiet
11 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be predominantly 
Quiet for the next few days with the small chance of isolated 
Unsettled periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for 
the next few days with the slight chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Mar    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Mar    80    Near predicted monthly values
10 Mar    85    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Mar    85    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for 
the next few days with the slight chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 337 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    35500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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