[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 07 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 8 10:30:15 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Mar             09 Mar             10 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   112/63             118/70             120/72

COMMENT: A C1-flare was observed during 7 March from region 1686 
near the west limb. Solar activity is expected to be mostly Very 
Low to Low with the small chance of Moderate activity. Solar 
wind speeds ranged between approximately 300-350 km/s during 
7 March and are expected to remain predominantly below 400 km/s 
for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12221101
      Darwin               3   12221001
      Townsville           5   12222111
      Learmonth            8   23232211
      Alice Springs        4   22221101
      Norfolk Island       4   12121111
      Gingin               5   12221112
      Camden               3   12220001
      Canberra             1   01120000
      Hobart               3   02220001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     2   01121000
      Casey                8   24321111
      Mawson               6   12212113

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1200 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Mar     6    Quiet
09 Mar     6    Quiet
10 Mar     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be predominantly 
Quiet for the next few days with the chance of isolated Unsettled 
periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for 
the next few days with the slight chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Mar    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Mar    80    Near predicted monthly values
09 Mar    85    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Mar    85    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for 
the next few days with the slight chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 310 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    17800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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