[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 07 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 8 10:30:15 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 112/63 118/70 120/72
COMMENT: A C1-flare was observed during 7 March from region 1686
near the west limb. Solar activity is expected to be mostly Very
Low to Low with the small chance of Moderate activity. Solar
wind speeds ranged between approximately 300-350 km/s during
7 March and are expected to remain predominantly below 400 km/s
for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 12221101
Darwin 3 12221001
Townsville 5 12222111
Learmonth 8 23232211
Alice Springs 4 22221101
Norfolk Island 4 12121111
Gingin 5 12221112
Camden 3 12220001
Canberra 1 01120000
Hobart 3 02220001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 01121000
Casey 8 24321111
Mawson 6 12212113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1200 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Mar 6 Quiet
09 Mar 6 Quiet
10 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be predominantly
Quiet for the next few days with the chance of isolated Unsettled
periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for
the next few days with the slight chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Mar 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Mar 80 Near predicted monthly values
09 Mar 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Mar 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for
the next few days with the slight chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 17800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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