[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 March 13 issued 2325 UT on 06 Mar 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 7 10:25:31 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Mar             08 Mar             09 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             112/63             118/70

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be mostly Very Low to 
Low with the small chance of Moderate activity. Solar wind speeds 
continued to decline slowly during 6 March and are presently 
around 300 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain around 
this level for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111011
      Darwin               3   12111011
      Townsville           6   22212122
      Learmonth            5   22221111
      Alice Springs        2   11111011
      Norfolk Island       3   12111111
      Gingin               2   11111011
      Camden               2   11111011
      Canberra             0   00000010
      Hobart               2   11101011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     6   51000010
      Casey                6   23311011
      Mawson               9   44221002

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   2000 0112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Mar     5    Quiet
08 Mar     5    Quiet
09 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet levels are expected for the next few days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days. SWFs possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Mar    77

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Mar    85    Near predicted monthly values
08 Mar    85    Near predicted monthly values
09 Mar    85    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 5 
March and is current for 6-7 Mar. Mostly normal to good HF conditions 
are expected for the next few days. SWFs possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 363 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    37900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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