[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 March 13 issued 2332 UT on 05 Mar 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 6 10:32:19 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0754UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 118/70


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Mar             07 Mar             08 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   118/70             115/66             120/72

COMMENT: An M1.2-flare was observed from solar region 1686 at 
0754UT on 5 March. Further low level flare class activity is 
possible over the next couple of days. An impressive CME was 
observed in STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery several hours prior 
to this flare. Analysis of the imagery suggests the CME is a 
backside event and is not expected to be geoeffective. No front-side 
CME appears associated with the M1-flare. Solar wind speeds declined 
slowly during 5 March and are presently around 350 km/s. Solar 
wind speeds are expected to continue to decline slowly during 
the next 24-48 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111211
      Darwin               3   21100211
      Townsville           6   22211222
      Learmonth            6   32211221
      Alice Springs        4   21111211
      Norfolk Island       3   21111111
      Gingin               4   21111221
      Camden               3   2-201111
      Canberra             1   21000100
      Hobart               3   13101200    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     1   10------
      Casey               10   33411122
      Mawson              16   53211144

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2111 2101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Mar     5    Quiet
07 Mar     5    Quiet
08 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet levels are expected for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Mar    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Mar    75    Near predicted monthly values
07 Mar    75    Near predicted monthly values
08 Mar    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 5 
March and is current for 6-7 Mar. Mostly normal HF conditions 
are expected for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 435 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    74600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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