[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 04 Mar 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 5 10:30:19 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 112/63 112/63 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low 04-Mar. Solar wind speed
stayed between 420 and 400 km/s for most parts of the UT day
today. The Bz component of IMF mostly varied between +/-4 nT
during this period. Low levels of solar activity may be
expected for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 21121101
Darwin 2 21110001
Townsville 5 22221112
Learmonth 7 32222112
Alice Springs 3 21121101
Norfolk Island 4 21121111
Gingin 5 31121111
Camden 2 11121001
Canberra 1 10020000
Hobart 3 21121001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 21132000
Casey 12 34432111
Mawson 12 43212124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2311 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Mar 5 Quiet
06 Mar 5 Quiet
07 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic activity was observed today.
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today
with some periods of minor to mild MUF depressions at some
mid latitude locations. HF conditions are expected to
remain mostly normal for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Mar 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Mar 55 Near predicted monthly values
06 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
07 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed in
the South Australian regions. Mostly normal HF conditions
may be expected on most locations for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 465 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 81300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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