[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 04 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 5 10:30:19 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Mar             06 Mar             07 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   112/63             112/63             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low 04-Mar. Solar wind speed 
stayed between 420 and 400 km/s for most parts of the UT day 
today. The Bz component of IMF mostly varied between +/-4 nT 
during this period. Low levels of solar activity may be 
expected for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21121101
      Darwin               2   21110001
      Townsville           5   22221112
      Learmonth            7   32222112
      Alice Springs        3   21121101
      Norfolk Island       4   21121111
      Gingin               5   31121111
      Camden               2   11121001
      Canberra             1   10020000
      Hobart               3   21121001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     4   21132000
      Casey               12   34432111
      Mawson              12   43212124

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2311 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Mar     5    Quiet
06 Mar     5    Quiet
07 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic activity was observed today. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today 
with some periods of minor to mild MUF depressions at some 
mid latitude locations. HF conditions are expected to 
remain mostly normal for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Mar    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Mar    55    Near predicted monthly values
06 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values
07 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed in 
the South Australian regions. Mostly normal HF conditions 
may be expected on most locations for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 465 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    81300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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