[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 03 Mar 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 4 10:30:11 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Mar             05 Mar             06 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low 03-Mar. Expect Very Low 
solar activity 04-Mar, with the chance of isolated C-class flares, 
particularly from a new active region on the east limb. Solar 
wind speed remains elevated (~450 km/s) under the influence of 
a coronal hole, but is declining. The IMF Bz remained mostly 
within +/-5nT 03-Mar and is expected to remain in that range 
04-Mar.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22221122
      Darwin               6   22221122
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth           12   33232233
      Alice Springs        6   22222122
      Norfolk Island       5   22211122
      Gingin               8   22222232
      Camden               5   22221112
      Canberra             4   12121111
      Hobart               5   22221111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     7   23222211
      Casey               17   44432233
      Mawson              22   44423353

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             12   4321 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Mar     5    Quiet
05 Mar     5    Quiet
06 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet 03-Mar, with 
isolated Active periods at high latitudes. The greater than 2 
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remains elevated above 
the 1000 pfu event level. Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions 
expected next three days (04-06 Mar) at all latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Mar    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values
05 Mar    55    Near predicted monthly values
06 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were moderately depressed across the S.Aus region 
03-Mar, and otherwise near predicted monthly values. Expect similar 
conditions 04-Mar with ongoing mild depressions across the S.Aus 
region, and a gradual strengthening of the ionosphere over the 
next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 570 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:   190000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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