[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 March 13 issued 2335 UT on 02 Mar 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 3 10:35:21 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Mar             04 Mar             05 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   111/62             109/59             108/58

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low 02-Mar, with two C-class flares 
from an active region around the East limb. The first of these 
(C1.9, 1511 UT) was associated with a eastward-directed CME visible 
in SOHO-LASCO imagery, but is not expected to be geoeffective. 
Expect Low solar activity 03-Mar, with the chance of further 
C-class flares. Solar wind speed remains elevated under the influence 
of a coronal hole, but is steadily declining. The IMF Bz remained 
mostly within +/-5nT, and is expected to remain relatively stable 
for the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   33312322
      Darwin              10   32312323
      Townsville          10   33322321
      Learmonth           14   33323333
      Alice Springs        8   32312320
      Norfolk Island       7   22212322
      Gingin              12   32322431
      Camden               9   23312322
      Canberra             7   23202312
      Hobart               9   23312322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    12   33423320
      Casey               23   45533331
      Mawson              34   64423364

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            34   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             30   5435 5444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Mar     5    Quiet
04 Mar     5    Quiet
05 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Unsettled 02-Mar, 
with isolated periods of Active-Minor storm conditions at high 
latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured at geosynchronous 
orbit passed the event level (1000 pfu), and remains elevated. 
With the solar wind speed now in decline and low solar wind density, 
expect mostly Quiet conditions 03-Mar, with some isolated Unsettled 
periods. Periods of Active geomagnetic conditions possible at 
high latitudes. Quiet conditions expected days 2 and 3 (04-05 
Mar) at all latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Mar    33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Mar    45    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Mar    55    Near predicted monthly values
05 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were moderately depressed across the region 02-Mar, 
as a result of elevated geomagnetic activity 01-Mar, with ongoing 
degraded HF conditions at S.Aus/Antarctic locations. MUFs were 
again depressed after local dawn 03-Mar at S.Aus latitudes. Expect 
mildly depressed conditions 03-Mar, with a gradual strengthening 
of the ionosphere over the next three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 509 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:   201000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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