[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 01 Mar 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 2 10:30:38 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Mar             03 Mar             04 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             118/70             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low 01-Mar. Expect Very Low 
solar activity 02-Mar, with the chance of isolated C-class flares, 
particularly from AR1682 and AR1683. Solar wind speed increased 
steadily over the UT day under the influence of a coronal hole, 
reaching 600km/s at its peak. The IMF Bz remained mostly within 
+/-10nT with the exception of a two hour interval of sustained, 
moderately southwards orientation (Bz=-15nT) from 0720-0930UT. 
Expect relatively stable IMF conditions on a declining solar 
wind next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Unsettled to 
Active

Estimated Indices 01 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      19   33344433
      Darwin              19   33344433
      Townsville          19   333443--
      Learmonth           30   33455543
      Alice Springs       17   233443--
      Norfolk Island      15   33333333
      Gingin              28   333455--
      Camden              19   33344433
      Canberra            13   23234332
      Hobart              18   23344433    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    42   336555--
      Casey               26   355341--
      Mawson              42   654632--

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Mar : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               7   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             28                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   1121 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Mar    10    Unsettled, with isolated Active periods at high 
                latitudes
03 Mar     5    Quiet
04 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions ranged from Unsettled early in 
the UT day as a coronal hole wind stream became geoeffective, 
to Active 09-12UT in response to a sustained period of southwards-directed 
IMF. Minor Storm periods were observed at high latitudes 09-12UT. 
Expect mostly Unsettled conditions 02-Mar with isolated Active 
periods at high latitudes, with a return to mostly Quiet conditions 
days 2 and 3 (03-04 Mar).

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Mar      Normal         Fair           Poor           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal


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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Mar    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Mar    35    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
03 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values
04 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs mostly near predicted values across the 
region 01-Mar. Degraded HF conditions observed at 
S.Aus/Antarctic locations during active geomagnetic conditions 
from 09UT. Moderate MUF depressions observed after dawn 02-Mar 
indicating a weakening of ionospheric support across the region. 
IPS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 1 March 
and is current for 02-Mar only. Expect moderate MUF depressions 
02-Mar, particularly in in S.Aus region during the local day.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 334 km/sec  Density:    9.6 p/cc  Temp:    43900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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