[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 February 13 issued 2329 UT on 28 Feb 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 1 10:29:57 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Mar             02 Mar             03 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low 28-Feb. Background solar 
X-ray flux remains at low levels. Expect Very Low solar activity 
01-Mar, with the chance of isolated C-class flares, particularly 
from AR1682. Solar wind speed increased over the second half 
of the UT day to be near 400km/s at the time of report. The IMF 
parameters indicate the arrival of the leading edge of a coronal 
hole wind stream late in the UT day 28-Feb. Expect variable IMF 
conditions 01-Mar and elevated solar wind speed next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11212122
      Darwin               4   21102122
      Townsville           7   22222123
      Learmonth            7   22212132
      Alice Springs        5   11212122
      Norfolk Island       5   22111122
      Gingin               6   22212122
      Camden               4   11201122
      Canberra             2   01101012
      Hobart               4   11211122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     3   11221001
      Casey               11   33422122
      Mawson              10   23213124

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   0110 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Mar    12    Unsettled
02 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed at all latitudes 
over the UT day 28-Feb. Solar wind parameters indicate the arrival 
of a coronal hole wind stream late in the UT day 28-Feb, expected 
to increase geomagnetic activity to mostly Unsettled, with isolated 
Active periods today (01-Mar), before a return to mostly Quiet 
conditions days 2 and 3 (02-03 Mar).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Feb    57

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Mar    65    Near predicted monthly values
02 Mar    45    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
03 Mar    50    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs mildly depressed across the region Feb 28, most 
notably in S.Aus during the local day. Low level geomagnetic 
activity may degrade HF conditions at S.Aus/Antarctic locations 
01-Mar and produce moderate MUF depressions from 02-Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 332 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:    39800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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