[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 February 13 issued 2329 UT on 28 Feb 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 1 10:29:57 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Mar             02 Mar             03 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low 28-Feb. Background solar 
X-ray flux remains at low levels. Expect Very Low solar activity 
01-Mar, with the chance of isolated C-class flares, particularly 
from AR1682. Solar wind speed increased over the second half 
of the UT day to be near 400km/s at the time of report. The IMF 
parameters indicate the arrival of the leading edge of a coronal 
hole wind stream late in the UT day 28-Feb. Expect variable IMF 
conditions 01-Mar and elevated solar wind speed next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11212122
      Darwin               4   21102122
      Townsville           7   22222123
      Learmonth            7   22212132
      Alice Springs        5   11212122
      Norfolk Island       5   22111122
      Gingin               6   22212122
      Camden               4   11201122
      Canberra             2   01101012
      Hobart               4   11211122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     3   11221001
      Casey               11   33422122
      Mawson              10   23213124

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   0110 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Mar    12    Unsettled
02 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed at all latitudes 
over the UT day 28-Feb. Solar wind parameters indicate the arrival 
of a coronal hole wind stream late in the UT day 28-Feb, expected 
to increase geomagnetic activity to mostly Unsettled, with isolated 
Active periods today (01-Mar), before a return to mostly Quiet 
conditions days 2 and 3 (02-03 Mar).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Feb    57

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Mar    65    Near predicted monthly values
02 Mar    45    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
03 Mar    50    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs mildly depressed across the region Feb 28, most 
notably in S.Aus during the local day. Low level geomagnetic 
activity may degrade HF conditions at S.Aus/Antarctic locations 
01-Mar and produce moderate MUF depressions from 02-Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 332 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:    39800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list