[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 March 13 issued 2330 UT on 24 Mar 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 25 10:30:20 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MARCH 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Mar             26 Mar             27 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low with no solar flares 
during the previous 24 hours. The background X ray flux has declined 
to the B1.6 level. Solar activity is expected to remain very 
low during the next 48 hours. There is only an isolated chance 
of a C class solar flare. The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux has 
decreased to 96 and is expected to decrease further during the 
next 48 hours. LASCO observations show a fast CME launched from 
the west limb near 15 UT on 24 March. This CME seems to merge 
with a slower CME launched from the north west limb early in 
the UT day. The combined event is not Earthward pointing. The 
solar wind speed is presently light near 380 km/s. The magnitude 
of the IMF is presently about 4 nT and Bz has been fluctuating 
between -4 nT and +4 nT. A low latitude coronal hole is approaching 
the central meridian of the solar disk and the associated fast 
speed stream is expected to impact the Earth about 28 March. 
The solar wind speed was enhanced during the same phase of the previous 
solar rotation cycle.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222211
      Darwin               8   32222222
      Townsville           6   22222221
      Learmonth            5   22222210
      Norfolk Island       6   21222221
      Culgoora             5   21122211
      Camden               6   21232211
      Canberra             5   21132210
      Hobart               6   12232210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     6   11142210
      Casey                9   33321221
      Mawson               9   42222222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   2022 3234     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Mar     4    Quiet
26 Mar     4    Quiet
27 Mar     6    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet during 24 March. 
Mid-latitude K indices were mostly in the range of 1 to 2 and 
the Australian Dst index has been fluctuating near zero. Geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to remain quiet during the next 48 hours. 
Conditions are expected to become unsettled on 27 March and a 
minor geomagnetic storm is possible during 28 to 29 March due 
to re-occurring coronal hole effects. The Ap index was enhanced 
during the same phase of the previous solar rotation cycle.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Near normal conditions can be expected for most of 25 
March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Mar    67

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Mar    65    Near predicted monthly values
26 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values
27 Mar    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: The HF propagation conditions were near normal during 
24 March and they are expected to remain near normal for most 
circuits during the next 48 hours. However, the propagation conditions 
were slightly depressed during the night hours of 24 March at 
some Australian mid-latitude stations. The Penticton 10.7 cm 
solar flux is expected to decrease toward 90 during the next 
few days. The T index may decrease for some propagation circuits.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:    38600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list