[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 26 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 27 09:30:23 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Two, low level, C flares from regions on the west limb.
No likely geo-effective CMEs observed. ACE data show the solar
wind north-south IMF component quiet and wind speed decreasing
from 500 to 400 km/s over the reporting period. Only a slight
chance of moderate activity for the next three days. Effects
from the coronal hole and 23 Jun CME are likely to occur late
27 Jun to 28 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Jun : A K
Australian Region 2 30100100
Cocos Island 0 -1100000
Darwin 3 31100111
Townsville 1 -1100101
Learmonth 1 -0110110
Alice Springs 0 -0000000
Norfolk Island 1 30000000
Culgoora 3 30100101
Camden 0 -1000100
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 2 30000100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 40000000
Casey 12 -2100111
Mawson 8 22101143
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 3322 1132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jun 8 Mostly quiet, becoming unsettled to active later.
28 Jun 20 Active
29 Jun 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Isolated minor storm levels 28 Jun. Isolated active
levels 29 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
28 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Propagation conditions may be degraded at times over
forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jun 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced 35-60% 06-11, 17-18 UT. Near predicted
monthly values at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions of
15-30% 07-08, 17 and 20-21 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressed 20-40% at
Darwin 10-18 UT and depressed 15-30% at Townsville
09-13 UT. Occasional night spread F observed at both
stations.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with 15-30% depressions
at times 07-19 UT. Night spread F observed at most
stations.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
at times.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jun 67 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect degraded propagation conditions at times,
especially during night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 516 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 118000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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