[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 27 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 28 09:30:21 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jun 29 Jun 30 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Only two, low, C-class flares from region 1778 (S17
E11). SDO images show a filament lift-off, at ~1945 UT, in the
vicinity of region 1777 (S17 W22). STEREO A images just show
the beginnings of a CME which is probably associated with the
disappearing filament. ACE data show the solar wind undisturbed
until a weak shock at 1351 UT. Thereafter, the IMF north-south
component ranged between +/-7 nT, tending southward, with the
wind speed range 470 to 420 km/s. This disturbance is likely
to be the impact from the 23 Jun CME. A coronal hole wind stream
should begin to affect the solar wind 28 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 11003112
Cocos Island 4 11103121
Darwin 5 11103222
Townsville 5 11103212
Learmonth 4 00103122
Alice Springs 3 00003111
Norfolk Island 3 12002111
Culgoora 3 01003112
Camden 3 10003112
Canberra 1 00002001
Hobart 2 00002112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 00001011
Casey 5 12212221
Mawson 9 31------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jun 20 Unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm levels.
29 Jun 12 Unsettled
30 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 26 June and
is current for 27-29 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Propagation conditions may be degraded at times over
forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jun 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions of
20-30% 14-16, 18-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions of
20-25% 12-13, 21-22 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions of
20-30% 03, 06, 10-14, 17 UT at Darwin.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions 20-35%
at Hobart 09, 13-18 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values on a weak
ionosphere.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jun 67 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jun 67 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jun 67 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Night spread F observed at all latitudes, particularly
persistent at mid-latitudes. Depressions to 25% possible on 28
Jun. Expect degraded propagation conditions at times, especially
during night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 439 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 68600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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