[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 26 09:30:23 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jun 27 Jun 28 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Only two B-class flares observed from the previously
active complex now on the south-west limb. Five regions on the
solar disc, all appear stable. The SDO observed a northern hemisphere
filament lift-off, beginning ~0500 UT. This was observed by the
SOHO/STEREO instruments with material ejected northwards, away
from the ecliptic plane. ACE parameters show the solar wind settling
with the north-south IMF component +/-4 nT and speed declining
to end the period at ~490 km/s. A CME associated with a 23 June
filament lift-off is considered will be geo-effective, probably
around 28 Jun. A recurrent coronal hole is now passing central
meridian and should become geo-effective later on 27 Jun. The
CME mentioned in 24 Jun report is now not thought will be geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 32210211
Cocos Island 4 32110111
Darwin 6 23211212
Townsville 10 33322222
Learmonth 5 32110212
Alice Springs 3 22110201
Norfolk Island 4 22210111
Culgoora 5 32210201
Camden 6 33210211
Canberra 3 22110101
Hobart 4 22211201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jun :
Macquarie Island 4 22310100
Casey 8 33221222
Mawson 33 64421346
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 20 3333 3453
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jun 8 Quiet to unsettled
27 Jun 12 Unsettled
28 Jun 20 Active
COMMENT: Possible isolated active conditions later on 27 Jun.
Isolated minor storm levels possible 28 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jun Fair-normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: SWFs possible 26 Jun. Propagation conditions may be
degraded at times over forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jun 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced 20-50% 03, 06-11 UT. Depressed 15-20% 13-15,
17-18, 23 UT, depressed 30-40% 16, 19-21 UT. Near
predicted monthly values at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressed 20-35% 07-10 UT
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressed 25-40% 11-12,
16-18 UT at Darwin. Also at Darwin, sporadic E 03-07 UT,
obscuring the F region 03-04 UT and night spread F.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% 09-21 at some stations. Night spread F at
all stations. Evening and night sporadic E observed at times.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jun 67 Near predicted monthly values
27 Jun 67 Near predicted monthly values
28 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 24
June and is current for 25-26 Jun. Propagation conditions may
be degraded at times due to disturbances in the ionosphere.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jun
Speed: 530 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 122000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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