[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jun 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 25 09:30:24 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun: 121/73

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jun             26 Jun             27 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: Four C-class flares, the largest a C9.9 at 1132 UT from 
region 1778 (S16 E48). Region 1772 (S22 W79) also contributed 
to the flare count. SOHO images show a halo event, while the 
STEREO images confirm this as early as 0354 UT. This is likely 
to impact around 27 June. ACE data show the north-south IMF component 
ranged between +/-5 nT with extended southward bias. The solar 
wind ranged between about 480 to 590 km/s.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet to unsettled. 
Isolated activity 15-18 UT.

Estimated Indices 24 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   22233432
      Cocos Island        10   12232422
      Darwin              12   22233432
      Townsville          13   23233432
      Learmonth           17   23333532
      Alice Springs       10   22223422
      Norfolk Island       9   22232322
      Culgoora            11   12233431
      Camden              12   22233432
      Canberra             7   11223321
      Hobart              12   22233432    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    23   22245543
      Casey               13   33322333
      Mawson              62   55443585

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jun : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             18   4443 2334     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Activity may increase on 27 Jun due to CME effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1955UT 23/06, Ended
at 2135UT 23/06

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: SWFs possible 25 to 26 Jun

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
24 Jun    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced 15-35% 01-10 UT. Near predicted monthly values
      to 15% depressed at other times.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with 15-25% depressions
      07-13, 15-17 UT. Enhancements to 30% at 20-21 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions 25-30% at Darwin
      16-18 UT. Spread F at Townsville 12-20 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 25% mostly
      07-17 UT. Spread F 04-21 UT at Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values, weak ionosphere.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  67

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jun    80    Near predicted monthly values
26 Jun    75    Near predicted monthly values
27 Jun    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 24 
June and is current for 25-26 Jun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.1E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 613 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   231000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list