[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jun 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 6 09:30:19 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3    0858UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jun             07 Jun             08 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity has been moderate with a single M1 event 
from region 1762(S30W60) beginning at 0814UT. A CME was observed 
in SOHO and STEREO coronagraphs in association with this event. 
The bulk of the ejected plasma is directed to the south-west, 
however a glancing blow from the edge of this CME is expected 
early on the 9th of June UT. A large CME was also observed early 
in the UT day directed towards the east, however STEREO imagery 
shows that this is a backside event. Solar wind speed reduced 
below 500 km/s and continues to reduce as the recent coronal 
hole high speed wind stream abates. IMF Bz ranged between +/- 
2nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21112011
      Cocos Island         4   21221011
      Darwin               4   22212011
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            5   22222011
      Alice Springs        3   21112011
      Norfolk Island       2   11112001
      Culgoora             3   11112111
      Gingin               4   21122111
      Camden               4   22112011
      Canberra             2   11012000
      Hobart               3   21112010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     2   11212000
      Casey               10   33221141
      Mawson              24   64234124

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   3332 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jun     5    Quiet
07 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled, possible isolated Active period.
08 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet over the last 24 
hours. Quiet conditions are expected to remain for the next day. 
A small CME is expected to arrive on the 7th of June causing 
possible isolated Active conditions on arrival, followed by Unsettled 
conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days. Some depressed periods may be observed at high latitudes 
on the 7th and 8th of June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Jun    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  67

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun    60    Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days. Some mildly depressed periods are possible on the 7-8 
June in southern and polar regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:33%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: 577 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   105000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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