[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 June 13 issued 2331 UT on 04 Jun 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 5 09:31:02 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity is currently very low with only B class
flares in the last 24 hours. Low activity is expected for the
next 3 days. The solar wind speed is gradually diminishing as
the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream abate.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 22221111
Cocos Island 5 22221111
Darwin 5 22211112
Townsville 9 33222222
Learmonth 7 32221122
Alice Springs 4 22211101
Norfolk Island 4 32210011
Culgoora 5 22221111
Gingin 7 32221122
Camden 3 -2210111
Canberra 2 22110001
Hobart 4 22220012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jun :
Macquarie Island 6 32320012
Casey 9 33212132
Mawson 29 64532244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 3212 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jun 6 Quiet
06 Jun 5 Quiet
07 Jun 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are mostly Quiet in the Australian
region. Some Unsettled to Active period may be expected on the
7th of June (UT) due to a minor coronal mass ejection (CME).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jun 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on 4
June and is current for 4-5 Jun. Mostly normal HF conditions
are expected for the next few days. Some depressed period are
possible on the 7th of June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 683 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 176000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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