[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 June 13 issued 2331 UT on 04 Jun 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 5 09:31:02 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jun             06 Jun             07 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity is currently very low with only B class 
flares in the last 24 hours. Low activity is expected for the 
next 3 days. The solar wind speed is gradually diminishing as 
the effects of a coronal hole high speed stream abate.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22221111
      Cocos Island         5   22221111
      Darwin               5   22211112
      Townsville           9   33222222
      Learmonth            7   32221122
      Alice Springs        4   22211101
      Norfolk Island       4   32210011
      Culgoora             5   22221111
      Gingin               7   32221122
      Camden               3   -2210111
      Canberra             2   22110001
      Hobart               4   22220012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     6   32320012
      Casey                9   33212132
      Mawson              29   64532244

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   3212 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jun     6    Quiet
06 Jun     5    Quiet
07 Jun    14    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are mostly Quiet in the Australian 
region. Some Unsettled to Active period may be expected on the 
7th of June (UT) due to a minor coronal mass ejection (CME).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jun    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  67

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jun    75    Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun    80    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on 4 
June and is current for 4-5 Jun. Mostly normal HF conditions 
are expected for the next few days. Some depressed period are 
possible on the 7th of June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 683 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   176000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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