[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 4 09:30:40 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low due to 2 C-class flares observed
from region 1762. This region is the most complex of the visible
solar regions and has the potential for low level M-class flare
activity. Solar wind speeds declined very slowly during 3 June
and are presently around 600 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected
to continue to decline slowly over the next few days. A slow
moving CME was observed during 3 June and is expected to have
a relatively weak impact at Earth during 7 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 22111122
Cocos Island 5 22121122
Darwin 5 22111122
Townsville 8 22222223
Learmonth 7 22112133
Alice Springs 4 22101122
Norfolk Island 3 -1011122
Culgoora 5 22111122
Gingin 6 22111232
Camden 5 22111122
Canberra 3 11011122
Hobart 4 21111122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jun :
Macquarie Island 5 22121122
Casey 17 33322154
Mawson 35 35533356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun :
Darwin 13 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22 5443 4333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jun 6 Quiet
06 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The influence of a coronal hole high speed stream continues
to abate. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next few
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days with isolated depressions at times. SWFs possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jun 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun 75 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days with isolated depressions at times. SWFs possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 722 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 204000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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