[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 June 13 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jun 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 7 09:30:19 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JUNE 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 07 JUNE - 09 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jun: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low with no C class or
greater X-ray flares. The solar wind speed has stabilised around
500 km/s. The total strength of the IMF has been increasing,
currently at almost 15nT. The Bz component turned strongly southward
around 17UT and remains at less than -10 nT. Solar activity is
expected to remain low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jun: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 06 Jun : A K
Australian Region 14 23333423
Cocos Island 9 12232323
Darwin 12 23323323
Townsville 14 13333423
Learmonth 17 23233533
Alice Springs 14 23333423
Norfolk Island 9 12332322
Culgoora 14 23333423
Gingin 18 23333533
Camden - --------
Canberra 10 12332323
Hobart 16 12443423
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jun :
Macquarie Island 27 12445633
Casey 20 23332623
Mawson 53 55444467
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 6 3211 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
08 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
09 Jun 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic activity has been Unsettled with Active periods.
This activity is due to sustained southward orientation of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Further Active periods are
possible over the next 24 hours if the IMF remains southward.
In addition, a CME impact is expected on the 7th of June which
may also cause Active conditions. Further CME activity may be
experienced on the 8th and 9th. Expect Unsettled to Active conditions
over the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days. Some depressed periods may be observed at high latitudes
over the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jun 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
few days. Some depressed periods are possible in southern and
polar regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.16E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jun
Speed: 494 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 85500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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