[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 July 13 issued 2332 UT on 29 Jul 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 30 09:32:27 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jul             31 Jul             01 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             125/78

COMMENT: A C2.9 level flare was observed in Active Region 1800 
(S08W85) at 1651UT. This region will rotate off the visible solar 
disk today. None of the remaining regions on the visible disk 
show significant magnetic complexity. A flare of unknown origin 
at C4 level is in progress at the time of report issue. A narrow 
SSE-directed CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery after 1130UT. 
A NE-directed CME was observed after 1325UT and an E-directed 
CME late in the UT day. These CME's are probably related to far-side 
events. Solar wind speed declined very slightly from 440 to 380 
km/s over the UT day. The Bz component of the Interplanetary 
Magnetic Field maintained mild (-2nT) bias until 15UT. There 
was a brief excursion to -4nT after 21UT. Solar wind parameters 
are expected to remain nominal for the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11111000
      Cocos Island         1   11111000
      Darwin               3   12111101
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth            2   11112000
      Alice Springs        1   11101000
      Norfolk Island       2   21001001
      Culgoora             1   11011001
      Gingin               2   11102110
      Camden               2   12112000
      Canberra             2   12011000
      Hobart               2   12112000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     3   11122100
      Casey                6   23211211
      Mawson               8   33311112
      Davis               15   3-------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jul : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   3311 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jul     5    Quiet
31 Jul     6    Quiet
01 Aug     6    Quiet

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid 
latitudes. Unsettled intervals were observed early in the UT 
day at high latitudes, becoming Quiet after 09UT. Expect generally 
Quiet conditions next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Jul    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day
      with variable enhancements/depressions to 15%.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Brisbane/Norfolk Is. depressed 15-25% after local 
      dawn Jul 30.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index:
 69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Regional MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values 
with some variability observed during local day Equatorial/N 
Aus regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: 440 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    83100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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