[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 July 13 issued 2331 UT on 28 Jul 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 29 09:31:41 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jul             30 Jul             31 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low with several low level C-class 
flare, predominantly from AR1800. Due to the low number of spot 
groups on the disc and their relatively small size, activity 
is expected to remain Low with very small chance of M-class flares. 
IMF Bz oscillated in the average +/-5nT range, not conducive 
to merging with the geomagnetic field. Solar wind speed was steady 
in the average 420-450km/s range.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22110112
      Cocos Island         2   11110011
      Darwin               5   22211112
      Townsville           4   2221011-
      Learmonth            3   11210112
      Alice Springs        3   22100112
      Norfolk Island       3   22100111
      Culgoora             3   22100112
      Gingin               3   11210112
      Camden               4   22111112
      Canberra             1   11110001
      Hobart               2   21110011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   12120000
      Casey                7   23222122
      Mawson              26   45423126
      Davis               14   33322215

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jul : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   3212 3232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jul     5    Quiet
30 Jul     5    Quiet
31 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed at mid to low latitudes 
due to moderate solar wind speed and IMF Bz only oscillating 
in the average +/-5nT range, not conducive to merging with the 
geomagnetic field. Higher activity was observed at polar latitudes. 
Quiet levels are expected over the next two days, in the absence 
of prolonged IMF Bz southwards periods, with isolated Unsettled 
periods possible 31-Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jul    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: The regionally averaged MUFs were somewhat depressed 
over 28-Jul, particularly at night. This would be partially due 
to the weekend coronal hole geomagnetic disturbance and partly 
due to the small number of sunspots and ionising EUV to aid recovery. 
Expect MUFs to recover to near monthly overages over 29-30 Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 446 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:   100000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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