[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 July 13 issued 2331 UT on 28 Jul 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 29 09:31:41 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jul 30 Jul 31 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low with several low level C-class
flare, predominantly from AR1800. Due to the low number of spot
groups on the disc and their relatively small size, activity
is expected to remain Low with very small chance of M-class flares.
IMF Bz oscillated in the average +/-5nT range, not conducive
to merging with the geomagnetic field. Solar wind speed was steady
in the average 420-450km/s range.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jul : A K
Australian Region 4 22110112
Cocos Island 2 11110011
Darwin 5 22211112
Townsville 4 2221011-
Learmonth 3 11210112
Alice Springs 3 22100112
Norfolk Island 3 22100111
Culgoora 3 22100112
Gingin 3 11210112
Camden 4 22111112
Canberra 1 11110001
Hobart 2 21110011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 12120000
Casey 7 23222122
Mawson 26 45423126
Davis 14 33322215
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jul :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3212 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jul 5 Quiet
30 Jul 5 Quiet
31 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed at mid to low latitudes
due to moderate solar wind speed and IMF Bz only oscillating
in the average +/-5nT range, not conducive to merging with the
geomagnetic field. Higher activity was observed at polar latitudes.
Quiet levels are expected over the next two days, in the absence
of prolonged IMF Bz southwards periods, with isolated Unsettled
periods possible 31-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jul 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The regionally averaged MUFs were somewhat depressed
over 28-Jul, particularly at night. This would be partially due
to the weekend coronal hole geomagnetic disturbance and partly
due to the small number of sunspots and ionising EUV to aid recovery.
Expect MUFs to recover to near monthly overages over 29-30 Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 100000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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