[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 July 13 issued 2328 UT on 27 Jul 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 28 09:28:53 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul: 108/58


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jul             29 Jul             30 Jul
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was predominantly Very Low with an isolated 
low level C-class flare observed during 27 July. Solar activity 
is expected to be predominantly Very Low to Low with the very 
small chance of M-class flares. CME activity observed late on 
26 July and very weak CME activity observed during 27 July is 
not expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds continued 
to decline slowly during 27 July and are expected to continue 
this trend during 28 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22122221
      Cocos Island         4   11112211
      Darwin               6   22222221
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            8   22223321
      Alice Springs        6   22222221
      Norfolk Island       5   21122211
      Culgoora             6   22122221
      Gingin               8   22223321
      Camden               6   22122221
      Canberra             5   21122221
      Hobart               5   21122221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     7   11133221
      Casey                9   33322212
      Mawson              32   54533336
      Davis               24   34432236

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              16   (Quiet)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             14   4422 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jul     6    Quiet
29 Jul     5    Quiet
30 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Most Quiet levels are expected over the next few days 
with isolated Unsettled periods possible at times.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three days, with a very small chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Jul    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three days, with a very small chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 551 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   225000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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