[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 July 13 issued 2335 UT on 26 Jul 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 27 09:35:09 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jul             28 Jul             29 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with only 
minor C-class activity. Region 1800 (S08W46) remains the most 
complex of the visible solar regions(Dao beta_gamma). Solar activity 
is expected to be predominantly Low with the small chance of 
low level M-class flares over the forecast period. No likely 
geo-effective CMEs observed in the available STEREO and SOHO 
satellite imagery. Solar wind speeds remained elevated during 
26 July, reaching around ~ 600 km/s and are presently around 
550 km/s. The IMF Bz oscillated within an average range of +/-5nT. 
Solar wind speeds are expected to decline slowly over the next 
few days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 26 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   23213122
      Cocos Island         5   22212121
      Darwin              10   33223222
      Townsville           9   33223122
      Learmonth           11   33323222
      Alice Springs        8   23223121
      Norfolk Island       5   22112121
      Culgoora             8   2322312-
      Gingin               9   33213222
      Camden               7   23213121
      Canberra             7   23213121
      Hobart               8   23213122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    11   23124322
      Casey               22   33334261
      Mawson              27   54433345
      Davis               25   43432246

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul : 
      Darwin              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            41   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14   1111 2354     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jul     7    Quiet
29 Jul     7    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 24 July and 
is current for 25-27 Jul. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled 
throughout the day with and isolated Storm period at high latitudes. 
The enhanced activity was a result of the fast coronal hole wind 
stream. The coronal hole effects are in decline and will wane 
over the next few days. Expect Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic 
conditions to continue 27 Jul and mostly Quiet conditions 28-29Jul.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three days, with a very small chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jul    72

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
28 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: There was variability with night-time MUFs depressed 
across northern regions. Expect ionospheric conditions to gradually 
improve over the next three days

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 333 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    45400 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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