[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jul 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 26 09:30:27 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jul             27 Jul             28 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with 
2 C class flares, one a C1.6 from AR1800 at 0608UT which had 
associated type III radio bursts but no type II indicative of 
a CME. The second C flare was ~C1.2 peaking ~2240UT, source not 
yet identified, and waning at the time of report writing with 
a long tail, often indicative of a CME, but in this case no type 
II radio burst so CME is unlikely. Yesterdays C flare from AR1800 
with a long tail was observed later by SOHO LASCO coronagraph 
data not to be associated with a CME. Solar activity is expected 
to be Low-Moderate 26-Jul, with small chance of an isolated M-class 
flares from AR1800, AR1793 or AR1801, but most likely only B/C 
flares. The high-speed solar-wind-stream from coronal hole CH576 
has become geoeffective from 17UT with speeds rising from 350km/s 
to 500km/s and turbulent from 20UT. Interplanetary Magnetic Field 
(IMF) north-south Bz has trended southwards since 12UT and oscillated 
within 0 to -10nT, not as strong as the previous rotation of 
this CH but there is still time for further development over 
the passage 26-27 Jul.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   01101233
      Cocos Island         6   11101233
      Darwin               6   11111233
      Townsville           6   11101233
      Learmonth            5   01101233
      Alice Springs        6   02101233
      Norfolk Island       3   01000222
      Culgoora             7   --101233
      Gingin               8   01101244
      Camden               5   01101233
      Canberra             5   01000233
      Hobart               5   11000233    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     4   00010223
      Casey                8   12102234
      Mawson              26   23213237
      Davis               18   12323236

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul : 
      Darwin              11   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2111 2122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jul    25    Active
27 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active
28 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 24 July and 
is current for 25-27 Jul. Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet 
over the 25-Jul UT day at mid and low latitudes. Isolated Active 
periods at auroral latitudes. The onset of high-speed solar-wind-stream 
from coronal Hole CH576 at 17UT, rising to 500km/s, and southwards 
turning of Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Bz after 12UT 
has increased activity late in the UT day to Unsettled at Mid 
to Low latitudes and Active to Storm at high latitudes. IMF Bz 
has so far only peaked at -10nT and the peak level of geomagnetic 
activity over 26-27 Jul will depend on the depth and duration 
of the southward turning. The data from STEREO-B spacecraft indicate 
the Bz southwards may not be as intense as the previous passage 
28-29 Jun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jul      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole high speed 
solar wind stream (HSSWS) taking effect and continuing 26-27 
July may cause disturbed conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Jul    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  69

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jul    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to 
                20%
27 Jul    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to 
                20%
28 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were slightly below monthly values for 24 hour 
averages across the region over the last 24 hours. However there 
was significant hourly variability with night-time MUFs depressed 
across all regions 15-35%. Over 26-27 July There will be Unsettled-Active 
geomagnetic activity due to high solar wind speed from a recurrent 
coronal hole CH576, probably causing MUF depressions up to 20% 
and larger hourly MUF variations than normal.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 341 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    28200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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