[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 July 13 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jul 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 26 09:30:27 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JULY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jul 27 Jul 28 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours, with
2 C class flares, one a C1.6 from AR1800 at 0608UT which had
associated type III radio bursts but no type II indicative of
a CME. The second C flare was ~C1.2 peaking ~2240UT, source not
yet identified, and waning at the time of report writing with
a long tail, often indicative of a CME, but in this case no type
II radio burst so CME is unlikely. Yesterdays C flare from AR1800
with a long tail was observed later by SOHO LASCO coronagraph
data not to be associated with a CME. Solar activity is expected
to be Low-Moderate 26-Jul, with small chance of an isolated M-class
flares from AR1800, AR1793 or AR1801, but most likely only B/C
flares. The high-speed solar-wind-stream from coronal hole CH576
has become geoeffective from 17UT with speeds rising from 350km/s
to 500km/s and turbulent from 20UT. Interplanetary Magnetic Field
(IMF) north-south Bz has trended southwards since 12UT and oscillated
within 0 to -10nT, not as strong as the previous rotation of
this CH but there is still time for further development over
the passage 26-27 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 01101233
Cocos Island 6 11101233
Darwin 6 11111233
Townsville 6 11101233
Learmonth 5 01101233
Alice Springs 6 02101233
Norfolk Island 3 01000222
Culgoora 7 --101233
Gingin 8 01101244
Camden 5 01101233
Canberra 5 01000233
Hobart 5 11000233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jul :
Macquarie Island 4 00010223
Casey 8 12102234
Mawson 26 23213237
Davis 18 12323236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jul :
Darwin 11 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2111 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jul 25 Active
27 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
28 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 24 July and
is current for 25-27 Jul. Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet
over the 25-Jul UT day at mid and low latitudes. Isolated Active
periods at auroral latitudes. The onset of high-speed solar-wind-stream
from coronal Hole CH576 at 17UT, rising to 500km/s, and southwards
turning of Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Bz after 12UT
has increased activity late in the UT day to Unsettled at Mid
to Low latitudes and Active to Storm at high latitudes. IMF Bz
has so far only peaked at -10nT and the peak level of geomagnetic
activity over 26-27 Jul will depend on the depth and duration
of the southward turning. The data from STEREO-B spacecraft indicate
the Bz southwards may not be as intense as the previous passage
28-29 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Fair Fair Fair-poor
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity from a coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream (HSSWS) taking effect and continuing 26-27
July may cause disturbed conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jul 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 69
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
20%
27 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
20%
28 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were slightly below monthly values for 24 hour
averages across the region over the last 24 hours. However there
was significant hourly variability with night-time MUFs depressed
across all regions 15-35%. Over 26-27 July There will be Unsettled-Active
geomagnetic activity due to high solar wind speed from a recurrent
coronal hole CH576, probably causing MUF depressions up to 20%
and larger hourly MUF variations than normal.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 28200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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